Biggest changeForecasting collection rates accurately is challenging, so we have designed our business model to produce acceptable levels of profitability across our portfolio, even if Loan performance is less than forecasted in the aggregate. 30 The following table presents information on Consumer Loan assignments for each of the last 10 years: Average Total Assignment Volume Consumer Loan Assignment Year Consumer Loan (1) Advance (2) Initial Loan Term (in months) Unit Volume Dollar Volume (2) (in millions) 2014 $ 15,692 $ 7,492 47 223,998 $ 1,675.7 2015 16,354 7,272 50 298,288 2,167.0 2016 18,218 7,976 53 330,710 2,635.5 2017 20,230 8,746 55 328,507 2,873.1 2018 22,158 9,635 57 373,329 3,595.8 2019 23,139 10,174 57 369,805 3,772.2 2020 24,262 10,656 59 341,967 3,641.2 2021 25,632 11,790 59 268,730 3,167.8 2022 27,242 12,924 60 280,467 3,625.3 2023 27,025 12,475 61 332,499 4,147.8 (1) Represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on Consumer Loans at the time of assignment, which include both principal and interest.
Biggest changeThe quarterly changes to our forecast of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio for the period from January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2024 are shown in the following table: (Dollars in millions) Increase (Decrease) in Forecasted Net Cash Flows Three Months Ended Total Loans % Change from Forecast at Beginning of Period March 31, 2020 $ (206.5) -2.3 % June 30, 2020 24.4 0.3 % September 30, 2020 138.5 1.5 % December 31, 2020 (2.7) 0.0 % March 31, 2021 107.4 1.1 % June 30, 2021 104.5 1.1 % September 30, 2021 82.3 0.9 % December 31, 2021 31.9 0.3 % March 31, 2022 110.2 1.2 % June 30, 2022 (43.4) -0.5 % September 30, 2022 (85.4) -0.9 % December 31, 2022 (41.1) -0.5 % March 31, 2023 9.4 0.1 % June 30, 2023 (89.3) -0.9 % September 30, 2023 (69.4) -0.7 % December 31, 2023 (57.0) -0.6 % March 31, 2024 (30.8) -0.3 % June 30, 2024 (189.3) -1.7 % September 30, 2024 (62.8) -0.6 % December 31, 2024 (31.1) -0.3 % 31 The following table presents information on Consumer Loan assignments for each of the last 10 years: Average Total Assignment Volume Consumer Loan Assignment Year Consumer Loan (1) Advance (2) Initial Loan Term (in months) Unit Volume Dollar Volume (2) (in millions) 2015 $ 16,354 $ 7,272 50 298,288 $ 2,167.0 2016 18,218 7,976 53 330,710 2,635.5 2017 20,230 8,746 55 328,507 2,873.1 2018 22,158 9,635 57 373,329 3,595.8 2019 23,139 10,174 57 369,805 3,772.2 2020 24,262 10,656 59 341,967 3,641.2 2021 25,632 11,790 59 268,730 3,167.8 2022 27,242 12,924 60 280,467 3,625.3 2023 27,025 12,475 61 332,499 4,147.8 2024 26,497 11,961 61 386,126 4,618.4 (1) Represents the repayments that we were contractually owed on Consumer Loans at the time of assignment, which include both principal and interest.
Our results for the year ended December 31, 2023 included: • A larger decrease in forecasted collection rates The decrease in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during 2022 that decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $59.7 million, or 0.7%. • A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022 Forecasted profitability was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2022, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates during 2023 and slower forecasted net cash flow timing during 2023, primarily as a result of a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels. • Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and the average balance of our Loan portfolio Unit and dollar volumes grew 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as compared to 2022.
Our results for the year ended December 31, 2023 included: • A larger decline in forecasted collection rates The decline in forecasted collection rates decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, compared to a decrease in forecasted collection rates during 2022 that decreased forecasted net cash flows from our Loan portfolio by $59.7 million, or 0.7%. • A decrease in forecasted profitability for Consumer Loans assigned in 2020 through 2022 Forecasted profitability was lower than our estimates at December 31, 2022, due to a decline in forecasted collection rates during 2023 and slower forecasted net cash flow timing during 2023, primarily as a result of a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels. • Growth in Consumer Loan assignment volume and the average balance of our Loan portfolio Unit and dollar volumes grew 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as compared to 2022.
Because our business is focused on consumers who do not qualify for conventional automobile financing, the actual rates of delinquencies, defaults, repossessions, and losses on our Consumer Loans could be higher than those experienced in the general automobile finance industry and could be more dramatically affected by a general economic downturn. 41 Premiums Earned Nature of Estimates Required.
Because our business is focused on consumers who do not qualify for conventional automobile financing, the actual rates of delinquencies, defaults, repossessions, and losses on our Consumer Loans could be higher than those experienced in the general automobile finance industry and could be more dramatically affected by a general economic downturn. Premiums Earned Nature of Estimates Required.
To the extent we prevail in matters for which a liability has been established or are required to pay amounts in excess of our established liability, our effective income tax rate in future periods could be materially affected. 42 Liquidity and Capital Resources We need capital to maintain and grow our business.
To the extent we prevail in matters for which a liability has been established or are required to pay amounts in excess of our established liability, our effective income tax rate in future periods could be materially affected. Liquidity and Capital Resources We need capital to maintain and grow our business.
We estimate the amount and timing of future collections and Dealer Holdback payments. These estimates impact Loans receivable and allowance for credit losses on our balance sheet and finance charges and provision for credit losses on our income statement. 39 Assumptions and Approaches Used.
We estimate the amount and timing of future collections and Dealer Holdback payments. These estimates impact Loans receivable and allowance for credit losses on our balance sheet and finance charges and provision for credit losses on our income statement. Assumptions and Approaches Used.
(2) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under our Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under our Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.
(2) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.
If the various financing alternatives were to become limited or unavailable to us, our operations and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected. Market Risk We are exposed primarily to market risks associated with movements in interest rates. Our policies and procedures prohibit the use of financial instruments for speculative purposes.
If the various financing alternatives were to become limited or unavailable to us, our operations and liquidity could be materially and adversely affected. Market Risk We are exposed primarily to market risks associated with movements in interest rates. Our policies and procedures prohibit the use of financial instruments for speculative purposes. 44 Interest Rate Risk.
The average balance of our Loan portfolio increased 5.0% as compared to 2022. • An increase in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments The initial spread increased to 21.3% compared to 20.1% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2022. • An increase in our average cost of debt The increase in our average cost of debt was primarily a result of higher interest rates on recently-completed or extended secured financings and the repayment of older secured financings with lower interest rates. • A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases We repurchased 0.4 million shares, or 2.8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.
The average balance of our Loan portfolio increased 5.0% as compared to 2022. • An increase in the initial spread on Consumer Loan assignments The initial spread increased to 21.3% compared to 20.1% on Consumer Loans assigned in 2022. • An increase in our average cost of debt Our average cost of debt increased from 3.6% to 5.5%, primarily as a result of higher interest rates on recently completed or extended secured financings and the repayment of older secured financings with lower interest rates. • A decrease in common shares outstanding due to stock repurchases We repurchased 0.4 million shares, or 2.8% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.
For 2019 and prior Consumer Loan assignments, the risk of a material forecast variance is modest, as we have currently realized in excess of 90% of the expected collections. Conversely, the forecasted collection rates for more recent Consumer Loan assignments are less certain as a significant portion of our forecast has not been realized.
For 2020 and prior Consumer Loan assignments, the risk of a material forecast variance is modest, as we have currently realized in excess of 90% of the expected collections. Conversely, the forecasted collection rates for more recent Consumer Loan assignments are less certain as a significant portion of our forecast has not been realized.
Discussions of 2021 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2022 and 2021 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022.
Discussions of 2022 items and year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022 that are not included in this Form 10-K can be found in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Item 7 of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023.
The following table compares our aggregated forecast of Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2023, with the aggregated forecasts as of December 31, 2022, as of December 31, 2021, and at the time of assignment, segmented by year of assignment: Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Current Forecast Variance from Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2023 December 31, 2022 December 31, 2021 Initial Forecast December 31, 2022 December 31, 2021 Initial Forecast 2014 71.7 % 71.7 % 71.5 % 71.8 % 0.0 % 0.2 % -0.1 % 2015 65.2 % 65.2 % 65.1 % 67.7 % 0.0 % 0.1 % -2.5 % 2016 63.8 % 63.8 % 63.6 % 65.4 % 0.0 % 0.2 % -1.6 % 2017 64.7 % 64.7 % 64.4 % 64.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.7 % 2018 65.5 % 65.2 % 65.1 % 63.6 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 1.9 % 2019 66.9 % 66.6 % 66.5 % 64.0 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 2.9 % 2020 67.6 % 67.8 % 67.9 % 63.4 % -0.2 % -0.3 % 4.2 % 2021 64.5 % 66.2 % 66.5 % 66.3 % -1.7 % -2.0 % -1.8 % 2022 62.7 % 66.3 % — 67.5 % -3.6 % — -4.8 % 2023 67.4 % — — 67.5 % — — -0.1 % (1) Represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment.
The following table compares our aggregated forecast of Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2024, with the aggregated forecasts as of December 31, 2023, as of December 31, 2022, and at the time of assignment, segmented by year of assignment: Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Current Forecast Variance from Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2024 December 31, 2023 December 31, 2022 Initial Forecast December 31, 2023 December 31, 2022 Initial Forecast 2015 65.3 % 65.2 % 65.2 % 67.7 % 0.1 % 0.1 % -2.4 % 2016 63.9 % 63.8 % 63.8 % 65.4 % 0.1 % 0.1 % -1.5 % 2017 64.7 % 64.7 % 64.7 % 64.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 2018 65.5 % 65.5 % 65.2 % 63.6 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 1.9 % 2019 67.2 % 66.9 % 66.6 % 64.0 % 0.3 % 0.6 % 3.2 % 2020 67.7 % 67.6 % 67.8 % 63.4 % 0.1 % -0.1 % 4.3 % 2021 63.8 % 64.5 % 66.2 % 66.3 % -0.7 % -2.4 % -2.5 % 2022 60.2 % 62.7 % 66.3 % 67.5 % -2.5 % -6.1 % -7.3 % 2023 64.3 % 67.4 % — 67.5 % -3.1 % — -3.2 % 2024 66.5 % — — 67.2 % — — -0.7 % (1) Represents the total forecasted collections we expect to collect on the Consumer Loans as a percentage of the repayments that we were contractually owed on the Consumer Loans at the time of assignment.
For additional information, see Note 11 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. Critical Accounting Estimates Our consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP.
For additional information, see Note 10 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. 39 Critical Accounting Estimates Our consolidated financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP.
The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate), and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of December 31, 2023, as well as forecasted collection rates and spreads at the time of assignment.
The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate), and the percentage of the forecasted collections that had been realized as of December 31, 2024, as well as forecasted collection rates and spreads at the time of assignment.
Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included. (2) Presented as a percentage of total forecasted collections. 31 The risk of a material change in our forecasted collection rate declines as the Consumer Loans age.
Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included. (2) Presented as a percentage of total forecasted collections. 32 The risk of a material change in our forecasted collection rate declines as the Consumer Loans age.
(2) We have contractual obligations to pay Dealer Holdback to Dealers. Payments of Dealer Holdback are contingent upon the receipt of consumer payments and the repayment of advances. The amounts presented represent our forecast as of December 31, 2023.
(2) We have contractual obligations to pay Dealer Holdback to Dealers. Payments of Dealer Holdback are contingent upon the receipt of consumer payments and the repayment of advances. The amounts presented represent our forecast as of December 31, 2024.
Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change through provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.
Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.
(2) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under our Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under our Purchase Program. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.
(2) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program. Payments of Dealer Holdback and accelerated Dealer Holdback are not included.
The following table compares our forecast of aggregate Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2023 with the forecasts at the time of assignment, for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately: Dealer Loans Purchased Loans Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2023 Initial Forecast Variance December 31, 2023 Initial Forecast Variance 2014 71.6 % 71.9 % -0.3 % 72.6 % 70.9 % 1.7 % 2015 64.6 % 67.5 % -2.9 % 68.9 % 68.5 % 0.4 % 2016 63.0 % 65.1 % -2.1 % 66.1 % 66.5 % -0.4 % 2017 64.0 % 63.8 % 0.2 % 66.3 % 64.6 % 1.7 % 2018 64.9 % 63.6 % 1.3 % 66.8 % 63.5 % 3.3 % 2019 66.5 % 63.9 % 2.6 % 67.5 % 64.2 % 3.3 % 2020 67.4 % 63.3 % 4.1 % 67.8 % 63.6 % 4.2 % 2021 64.2 % 66.3 % -2.1 % 65.0 % 66.3 % -1.3 % 2022 62.0 % 67.3 % -5.3 % 64.3 % 68.0 % -3.7 % 2023 66.4 % 66.8 % -0.4 % 70.1 % 69.4 % 0.7 % (1) The forecasted collection rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment.
The following table compares our forecast of aggregate Consumer Loan collection rates as of December 31, 2024 with the forecasts at the time of assignment, for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately: Dealer Loans Purchased Loans Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Forecasted Collection Percentage as of (1) Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2024 Initial Forecast Variance December 31, 2024 Initial Forecast Variance 2015 64.6 % 67.5 % -2.9 % 69.0 % 68.5 % 0.5 % 2016 63.1 % 65.1 % -2.0 % 66.1 % 66.5 % -0.4 % 2017 64.1 % 63.8 % 0.3 % 66.3 % 64.6 % 1.7 % 2018 64.9 % 63.6 % 1.3 % 66.8 % 63.5 % 3.3 % 2019 66.8 % 63.9 % 2.9 % 67.9 % 64.2 % 3.7 % 2020 67.5 % 63.3 % 4.2 % 67.9 % 63.6 % 4.3 % 2021 63.5 % 66.3 % -2.8 % 64.3 % 66.3 % -2.0 % 2022 59.5 % 67.3 % -7.8 % 62.1 % 68.0 % -5.9 % 2023 63.1 % 66.8 % -3.7 % 67.7 % 69.4 % -1.7 % 2024 65.4 % 66.3 % -0.9 % 70.7 % 70.7 % 0.0 % (1) The forecasted collection rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment.
There are various restrictive covenants to which we are subject under each financing arrangement, and we were in compliance with those covenants as of December 31, 2023.
There are various restrictive covenants to which we are subject under each financing arrangement, and we were in compliance with those covenants as of December 31, 2024.
Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates. 32 The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate) as of December 31, 2023 for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately.
Forecasted collection rates are negatively impacted by canceled Consumer Loans as the contractual amount owed is not removed from the denominator for purposes of computing forecasted collection rates. 33 The following table presents aggregate forecasted Consumer Loan collection rates, advance rates, and spreads (the forecasted collection rate less the advance rate) as of December 31, 2024 for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans separately.
During the first half of 2023, we experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. The below-average levels of Consumer Loan prepayments continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit.
We had experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. The below-average levels of Consumer Loan prepayments continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit.
Access to Capital Our strategy for accessing capital on acceptable terms needed to maintain and grow the business is to: (1) maintain consistent financial performance; (2) maintain modest financial leverage; and (3) maintain multiple funding sources. Our funded debt to equity ratio was 2.9 to 1 as of December 31, 2023.
Access to Capital Our strategy for accessing capital on acceptable terms needed to maintain and grow the business is to: (1) maintain consistent financial performance; (2) maintain modest financial leverage; and (3) maintain multiple funding sources. Our funded debt to equity ratio was 3.6 to 1 as of December 31, 2024.
New Accounting Update Not Yet Adopted See Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference, for information concerning the following new accounting update and the impact of the implementation of this update on our financial statements: • Disclosure Improvements: Codification Amendments in Response to the SEC’s Disclosure Update and Simplification Initiative. • Improvements to Reportable Segment Disclosures • Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures Forward-Looking Statements We make forward-looking statements in this report and may make such statements in future filings with the SEC.
New Accounting Updates Not Yet Adopted See Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference, for information concerning the following new accounting updates and the impact of the implementation of these updates on our financial statements: • Disclosure Improvements: Codification Amendments in Response to the SEC’s Disclosure Update and Simplification Initiative • Improvements to Income Tax Disclosures • Disaggregation of Income Statement Expenses Forward-Looking Statements We make forward-looking statements in this report and may make such statements in future filings with the SEC.
We currently utilize the following primary forms of debt financing: (1) our revolving secured line of credit facility; (2) Warehouse facilities; (3) Term ABS financings; and (4) senior notes. 33 Consumer Loan Volume The following table summarizes changes in Consumer Loan assignment volume in each of the last three years as compared to the same period in the previous year: Year over Year Percent Change For the Year Ended December 31, Unit Volume Dollar Volume (1) 2021 -21.4 % -13.0 % 2022 4.4 % 14.5 % 2023 18.6 % 14.4 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under our Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under our Purchase Program.
We currently utilize the following primary forms of debt financing: (1) our revolving secured line of credit facility; (2) Warehouse facilities; (3) Term ABS financings; and (4) senior notes. 34 Consumer Loan Volume The following table summarizes changes in Consumer Loan assignment volume in each of the last three years as compared to the same period in the previous year: Year over Year Percent Change For the Year Ended December 31, Unit Volume Dollar Volume (1) 2022 4.4 % 14.5 % 2023 18.6 % 14.4 % 2024 16.1 % 11.3 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program.
Consumer Loans are assigned to us as either Dealer Loans through our Portfolio Program or Purchased Loans through our Purchase Program.
Consumer Loans are assigned to us as either Dealer Loans through the Portfolio Program or Purchased Loans through the Purchase Program.
We adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data.
During the second quarter of 2023, we adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data.
Forecasted Collection % as of Spread % as of Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2023 Initial Forecast Advance % (1) December 31, 2023 Initial Forecast % of Forecast Realized (2) 2014 71.7 % 71.8 % 47.7 % 24.0 % 24.1 % 99.8 % 2015 65.2 % 67.7 % 44.5 % 20.7 % 23.2 % 99.5 % 2016 63.8 % 65.4 % 43.8 % 20.0 % 21.6 % 99.1 % 2017 64.7 % 64.0 % 43.2 % 21.5 % 20.8 % 98.7 % 2018 65.5 % 63.6 % 43.5 % 22.0 % 20.1 % 96.9 % 2019 66.9 % 64.0 % 44.0 % 22.9 % 20.0 % 92.5 % 2020 67.6 % 63.4 % 43.9 % 23.7 % 19.5 % 83.7 % 2021 64.5 % 66.3 % 46.0 % 18.5 % 20.3 % 69.1 % 2022 62.7 % 67.5 % 47.4 % 15.3 % 20.1 % 43.5 % 2023 67.4 % 67.5 % 46.2 % 21.2 % 21.3 % 14.2 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under our Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under our Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans.
Forecasted Collection % as of Spread % as of Consumer Loan Assignment Year December 31, 2024 Initial Forecast Advance % (1) December 31, 2024 Initial Forecast % of Forecast Realized (2) 2015 65.3 % 67.7 % 44.5 % 20.8 % 23.2 % 99.7 % 2016 63.9 % 65.4 % 43.8 % 20.1 % 21.6 % 99.5 % 2017 64.7 % 64.0 % 43.2 % 21.5 % 20.8 % 99.2 % 2018 65.5 % 63.6 % 43.5 % 22.0 % 20.1 % 98.6 % 2019 67.2 % 64.0 % 44.0 % 23.2 % 20.0 % 96.9 % 2020 67.7 % 63.4 % 43.9 % 23.8 % 19.5 % 92.4 % 2021 63.8 % 66.3 % 46.0 % 17.8 % 20.3 % 83.6 % 2022 60.2 % 67.5 % 47.4 % 12.8 % 20.1 % 66.0 % 2023 64.3 % 67.5 % 46.2 % 18.1 % 21.3 % 43.1 % 2024 66.5 % 67.2 % 45.1 % 21.4 % 22.1 % 15.1 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program as a percentage of the initial balance of the Consumer Loans.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.8% (including the initial purchasers’ fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.4% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
Variances in the pattern of future claims from our current estimates would impact the timing of premiums recognized in future periods. A 10% change in premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2023 would have affected 2023 consolidated net income by approximately $6.1 million. Contingencies Nature of Estimates Required.
Variances in the pattern of future claims from our current estimates would impact the timing of premiums recognized in future periods. A 10% change in premiums earned for the year ended December 31, 2024 would have affected 2024 consolidated net income by approximately $7.4 million. Contingencies Nature of Estimates Required.
Due to the GAAP treatment of contractual net cash flows we do not expect to realize at the time of loan assignment (i.e. significant expense at the time of loan assignment, which is offset by higher revenue in subsequent periods), we do not believe the GAAP methodology we employ provides sufficient transparency into the economics of our business.
Due to the GAAP treatment of contractual net cash flows we do not expect to realize at the time of loan assignment (i.e. significant expense at the time of loan assignment, which is offset by higher revenue in subsequent periods), we do not believe the GAAP methodology we employ provides sufficient transparency into the economics of our business, including our results of operations, financial condition, and financial leverage.
(3) A lease liability of $2.7 million is recognized within accounts payable and accrued liabilities in our consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2023. (4) Purchase obligations consist primarily of contractual obligations related to our information system needs.
(3) A lease liability of $1.6 million is recognized within accounts payable and accrued liabilities in our consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2024. (4) Purchase obligations consist primarily of contractual obligations related to our information system needs.
The $206.3 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows during 2023 included the impact of an adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023, which, upon implementation, decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased our provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.
The $206.3 million decrease in forecasted net cash flows during 2023 was composed of an ordinary decrease in forecasted net cash flows of $161.8 million, or 1.8%, and an adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023, which, upon implementation, decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased our provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.
Dollar volume increased less than unit volume in 2023 due to a decrease in the average advance paid, due to decreases in the average advance rate and the average size of Consumer Loans assigned. Unit volume for 2023 was 10.9% less than unit volume for 2018, which was the highest unit volume in our history.
Dollar volume increased less than unit volume in 2024 due to a decrease in the average advance paid, due to decreases in the average advance rate and the average size of Consumer Loans assigned. Unit volume for 2024 was the highest unit volume in our history.
Dealer Loans Purchased Loans Consumer Loan Assignment Year Forecasted Collection % (1) Advance % (1)(2) Spread % Forecasted Collection % (1) Advance % (1)(2) Spread % 2014 71.6 % 47.2 % 24.4 % 72.6 % 51.8 % 20.8 % 2015 64.6 % 43.4 % 21.2 % 68.9 % 50.2 % 18.7 % 2016 63.0 % 42.1 % 20.9 % 66.1 % 48.6 % 17.5 % 2017 64.0 % 42.1 % 21.9 % 66.3 % 45.8 % 20.5 % 2018 64.9 % 42.7 % 22.2 % 66.8 % 45.2 % 21.6 % 2019 66.5 % 43.1 % 23.4 % 67.5 % 45.6 % 21.9 % 2020 67.4 % 43.0 % 24.4 % 67.8 % 45.5 % 22.3 % 2021 64.2 % 45.1 % 19.1 % 65.0 % 47.7 % 17.3 % 2022 62.0 % 46.4 % 15.6 % 64.3 % 50.1 % 14.2 % 2023 66.4 % 44.8 % 21.6 % 70.1 % 49.8 % 20.3 % (1) The forecasted collection rates and advance rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment.
Dealer Loans Purchased Loans Consumer Loan Assignment Year Forecasted Collection % (1) Advance % (1)(2) Spread % Forecasted Collection % (1) Advance % (1)(2) Spread % 2015 64.6 % 43.4 % 21.2 % 69.0 % 50.2 % 18.8 % 2016 63.1 % 42.1 % 21.0 % 66.1 % 48.6 % 17.5 % 2017 64.1 % 42.1 % 22.0 % 66.3 % 45.8 % 20.5 % 2018 64.9 % 42.7 % 22.2 % 66.8 % 45.2 % 21.6 % 2019 66.8 % 43.1 % 23.7 % 67.9 % 45.6 % 22.3 % 2020 67.5 % 43.0 % 24.5 % 67.9 % 45.5 % 22.4 % 2021 63.5 % 45.1 % 18.4 % 64.3 % 47.7 % 16.6 % 2022 59.5 % 46.4 % 13.1 % 62.1 % 50.1 % 12.0 % 2023 63.1 % 44.8 % 18.3 % 67.7 % 49.8 % 17.9 % 2024 65.4 % 44.1 % 21.3 % 70.7 % 48.9 % 21.8 % (1) The forecasted collection rates and advance rates presented for Dealer Loans and Purchased Loans reflect the Consumer Loan classification at the time of assignment.
Although the advance rate on Purchased Loans is higher as compared to the advance rate on Dealer Loans, Purchased Loans do not require us to pay Dealer Holdback. The spread as of December 31, 2023 on 2023 Dealer Loans was 21.6%, as compared to a spread of 15.6% on 2022 Dealer Loans.
Although the advance rate on Purchased Loans is higher as compared to the advance rate on Dealer Loans, Purchased Loans do not require us to pay Dealer Holdback. The spread as of December 31, 2024 on 2024 Dealer Loans was 21.3%, as compared to a spread of 18.3% on 2023 Dealer Loans.
Key Factors. Variances in the amount and timing of future net cash flows from current estimates could materially impact earnings in future periods. A 1% decline in the forecasted future net cash flows on Loans as of December 31, 2023 would have reduced 2023 consolidated net income by approximately $51.2 million.
Variances in the amount and timing of future net cash flows from current estimates could materially impact earnings in future periods. A 1% decline in the forecasted future net cash flows on Loans as of December 31, 2024 would have reduced 2024 consolidated net income by approximately $59.7 million.
We follow a two-step approach for recognizing uncertain tax positions. First, we evaluate the tax position for recognition by determining if the weight of available evidence indicates it is more-likely-than-not that the position will be sustained upon examination, including resolution of related appeals or litigation processes, if any.
First, we evaluate the tax position for recognition by determining if the weight of available evidence indicates it is more-likely-than-not that the position will be sustained upon examination, including resolution of related appeals or litigation processes, if any.
For the year ended December 31, 2022, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2014, 2016, and 2017, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 and 2022, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, forecasted collection rates improved for Consumer Loans assigned in 2019, declined for Consumer Loans assigned in 2021 through 2024, and were generally consistent with expectations at the start of the period for all other assignment years presented.
The following table shows the percentage of Consumer Loans assigned to us under each of the programs for each of the last three years: Unit Volume Dollar Volume (1) For the Years Ended December 31, Portfolio Program Purchase Program Portfolio Program Purchase Program 2021 67.9 % 32.1 % 65.0 % 35.0 % 2022 73.5 % 26.5 % 69.8 % 30.2 % 2023 74.0 % 26.0 % 70.7 % 29.3 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under our Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under our Purchase Program.
The following table shows the percentage of Consumer Loans assigned to us under each of the programs for each of the last three years: Unit Volume Dollar Volume (1) For the Years Ended December 31, Portfolio Program Purchase Program Portfolio Program Purchase Program 2022 73.5 % 26.5 % 69.8 % 30.2 % 2023 74.0 % 26.0 % 70.7 % 29.3 % 2024 78.7 % 21.3 % 77.5 % 22.5 % (1) Represents advances paid to Dealers on Consumer Loans assigned under the Portfolio Program and one-time payments made to Dealers to purchase Consumer Loans assigned under the Purchase Program.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 7.3% (including the initial purchasers’ fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 7.8% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 36 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 7.3% (including the initial purchasers’ fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 6.5% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
We use a statistical model to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment. We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast.
We continue to evaluate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan subsequent to assignment. Our evaluation becomes more accurate as the Consumer Loans age, as we use actual performance data in our forecast.
The increase of $69.1 million, or 4.1%, was primarily due to an increase in the average net Loans receivable balance, as follows: (Dollars in millions) For the Years Ended December 31, 2023 2022 Change Average net Loans receivable balance $ 6,627.8 $ 6,311.3 $ 316.5 Average yield on our Loan portfolio 26.5 % 26.7 % -0.2 % The following table summarizes the impact each component had on the overall increase in finance charges for the year ended December 31, 2023: (In millions) Impact on finance charges: For the Year Ended December 31, 2023 Due to an increase in the average net Loans receivable balance $ 84.6 Due to a decrease in the average yield (15.5) Total increase in finance charges $ 69.1 37 The increase in the average net Loans receivable balance was primarily due to the dollar volume of new Consumer Loan assignments exceeding the principal collected on Loans receivable.
The increase of $237.3 million, or 13.5%, was primarily due to an increase in the average net Loans receivable balance, as follows: (Dollars in millions) For the Years Ended December 31, 2024 2023 Change Average net Loans receivable balance $ 7,530.7 $ 6,627.8 $ 902.9 Average yield on our Loan portfolio 26.5 % 26.5 % — % 37 The following table summarizes the impact each component had on the overall increase in finance charges for the year ended December 31, 2024: (In millions) Impact on finance charges: For the Year Ended December 31, 2024 Due to an increase in the average net Loans receivable balance $ 239.1 Due to a decrease in the average yield (1.8) Total increase in finance charges $ 237.3 The increase in the average net Loans receivable balance was primarily due to the dollar volume of new Consumer Loan assignments exceeding the principal collected on Loans receivable.
The removal of the COVID forecast adjustment and the implementation of the enhanced forecasting methodology during the first quarter of 2022 impacted forecasted net cash flows and provision for credit losses as follows: (In millions) Increase / (Decrease) in Forecasting Methodology Changes Forecasted Net Cash Flows Provision for Credit Losses Removal of COVID forecast adjustment $ 149.5 $ (118.5) Implementation of enhanced forecasting methodology (53.8) 47.9 Total $ 95.7 $ (70.6) Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2023, included: • $322.5 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $248.3 million, or $19.08 per diluted share; and • $413.7 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $318.5 million, or $24.48 per diluted share.
The removal of the COVID forecast adjustment and the implementation of the enhanced forecasting methodology during the first quarter of 2022 impacted forecasted net cash flows and provision for credit losses as follows: (In millions) Increase / (Decrease) in Forecasting Methodology Changes Forecasted Net Cash Flows Provision for Credit Losses Removal of COVID forecast adjustment $ 149.5 $ (118.5) Implementation of enhanced forecasting methodology (53.8) 47.9 Total $ 95.7 $ (70.6) Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2024, included: • $320.9 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $247.1 million, or $19.82 per diluted share; and • $493.8 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $380.2 million, or $30.49 per diluted share.
Based on the actual principal amounts outstanding under our revolving secured line of credit facility, our Warehouse facilities, our Term ABS financings, and our senior notes as of December 31, 2023, the forecasted principal amounts outstanding on all other debt, and the actual interest rates in effect as of December 31, 2023, interest is expected to be approximately $303.0 million during 2024; $249.7 million during 2025; and $219.4 million during 2026 and thereafter.
Based on the actual principal amounts outstanding under our revolving secured line of credit facility, our Warehouse facilities, our Term ABS financings, and our senior notes as of December 31, 2024, the forecasted principal amounts outstanding on all other debt, and the actual interest rates in effect as of December 31, 2024, interest is expected to be approximately $397.8 million during 2025; $271.8 million during 2026; and $180.9 million during 2027 and thereafter.
Our pricing strategy is intended to maximize the amount of economic profit we generate, within the confines of capital and infrastructure constraints. During 2023, unit and dollar volumes increased 18.6% and 14.4%, respectively, as the number of active Dealers increased 19.1% while average volume per active Dealer decreased 0.4%.
Our pricing strategy is intended to maximize the amount of economic profit we generate, within the confines of capital and infrastructure constraints. During 2024, unit and dollar volumes increased 16.1% and 11.3%, respectively, as the number of active Dealers increased 9.1% while average volume per active Dealer increased 6.4%.
During the first half of 2023, we experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. The below-average levels of Consumer Loan prepayments continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit.
We had experienced a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels and, as a result, slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing. Historically, Consumer Loan prepayments have been lower in periods with less availability of consumer credit.
The increase of $16.9 million, or 27.0%, was primarily due to growth in the size of our reinsurance portfolio, which resulted from growth in new Consumer Loan assignments and an increase in the average premium written per reinsured vehicle service contract in recent periods. Other Income .
Premiums Earned. The increase of $16.5 million, or 20.7%, was primarily due to growth in the size of our reinsurance portfolio, which resulted from growth in new Consumer Loan assignments and an increase in the average premium written per reinsured vehicle service contract in recent periods. Operating Expenses .
As of December 31, 2023, we had $79.2 million of floating rate debt outstanding under our revolving secured lines of credit, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on our revolving secured lines of credit, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $0.6 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.
As of December 31, 2024, we had $300.0 million in floating rate debt outstanding under Term ABS 2022-2, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on Term ABS 2022-2, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $2.3 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.
The decrease in provision for credit losses related to new Consumer Loan assignments was due to a 20.9% decrease in the average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment, partially offset by an 18.6% increase in Consumer Loan assignment unit volume.
The decrease in provision for credit losses related to new Consumer Loan assignments was due to a 14.3% decrease in the average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment, partially offset by a 16.1% increase in Consumer Loan assignment unit volume.
The increase was primarily as a result of Consumer Loan performance, as the performance of 2022 Purchased Loans has been significantly lower than our initial estimates, while the performance of 2023 Purchased Loans has exceeded our initial estimates. Additionally, 2023 Purchased Loans had a higher initial spread, due to a higher initial forecast and a lower advance rate.
The increase was primarily a result of a higher initial spread on 2024 Purchased Loans, due to a higher initial forecast and lower advance rate. Additionally, the performance of 2023 Purchased Loans has been lower than our initial estimates.
For the year ended December 31, 2023, the effective income tax rate decreased to 22.2% from 24.7% for the year ended December 31, 2022.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, the effective income tax rate increased to 24.8% from 22.2% for the year ended December 31, 2023.
On May 25, 2023, we completed a $400.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On March 28, 2024, we completed a $500.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On November 30, 2023, we completed a $200.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On June 20, 2024, we completed a $550.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On December 21, 2023, we completed a $294.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On September 26, 2024, we completed a $600.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
The spread between the forecasted collection rate as of December 31, 2023 and the advance rate ranges from 15.3% to 24.0% for Consumer Loans assigned over the last 10 years.
The spread between the forecasted collection rate as of December 31, 2024 and the advance rate ranges from 12.8% to 23.8% for Consumer Loans assigned over the last 10 years.
On January 1, 2020, we adopted Accounting Standards Update 2016-13, Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, which is known as the current expected credit loss model, or CECL. Prior to the adoption of CECL on January 1, 2020, we accounted for our Loans as loans acquired with significant credit deterioration.
On January 1, 2020, we adopted Accounting Standards Update 2016-13, Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments, which is known as the current expected credit loss model, or CECL.
During 2023, we decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $206.3 million, or 2.3%, to reflect a decline in forecasted collection rates during the period and slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing to reflect a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments to below-average levels.
During 2024, we decreased our estimate of future net cash flows by $314.0 million, or 3.1%, to reflect a decline in forecasted collection rates during the period and slowed our forecasted net cash flow timing to reflect a decrease in Consumer Loan prepayments, which remain below historical averages.
A summary as of December 31, 2023 of our material financial obligations requiring future repayments is as follows: (In millions) Payments Due as of December 31, 2023 In less than 12 months In 12 months or more Total Long-term debt, including current maturities (1) $ 953.4 $ 4,153.2 $ 5,106.6 Dealer Holdback (2) 202.9 562.9 765.8 Operating lease obligations (3) 1.5 1.5 3.0 Purchase obligations (4) 7.0 4.6 11.6 Total financial obligations $ 1,164.8 $ 4,722.2 $ 5,887.0 (1) The amounts presented consist solely of principal and do not reflect deferred debt issuance costs of $36.6 million and unamortized debt discount of $2.5 million.
A summary as of December 31, 2024 of our material financial obligations requiring future repayments is as follows: (In millions) Payments Due as of December 31, 2024 In less than 12 months In 12 months or more Total Long-term debt, including current maturities (1) $ 1,249.6 $ 5,142.3 $ 6,391.9 Dealer Holdback (2) 139.5 450.5 590.0 Operating lease obligations (3) 1.0 0.7 1.7 Purchase obligations (4) 2.4 14.8 17.2 Total financial obligations $ 1,392.5 $ 5,608.3 $ 7,000.8 (1) The amounts presented consist solely of principal and do not reflect deferred debt issuance costs of $37.7 million and unamortized debt discount of $1.3 million.
Consumer Loan Metrics At the time a Consumer Loan is submitted to us for assignment, we forecast future expected cash flows from the Consumer Loan. Based on the amount and timing of these forecasts and expected expense levels, an advance or one-time purchase payment is made to the related Dealer at a price designed to maximize economic profit.
Based on the amount and timing of these forecasts and expected expense levels, an advance or one-time purchase payment is made to the related Dealer at a price designed to maximize economic profit. We use a statistical model to estimate the expected collection rate for each Consumer Loan at the time of assignment.
The changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows (forecasted collections less forecasted Dealer Holdback payments) as follows: (In millions) For the Years Ended December 31, Increase (Decrease) in Forecasted Net Cash Flows 2023 2022 2021 Dealer Loans $ (125.3) $ (41.6) $ 87.7 Purchased Loans (81.0) (18.1) 238.4 Total $ (206.3) $ (59.7) $ 326.1 % change from forecast at beginning of period -2.3 % -0.7 % 3.4 % During the second quarter of 2023, we adjusted our methodology for forecasting the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio through the utilization of more recent Consumer Loan performance and Consumer Loan prepayment data.
The changes in forecasted collection rates impacted forecasted net cash flows (forecasted collections less forecasted Dealer Holdback payments) as follows: (In millions) For the Years Ended December 31, Decrease in Forecasted Net Cash Flows 2024 2023 2022 Dealer Loans $ (204.6) $ (125.3) $ (41.6) Purchased Loans (109.4) (81.0) (18.1) Total $ (314.0) $ (206.3) $ (59.7) % change from forecast at beginning of period -3.1 % -2.3 % -0.7 % 30 During the second quarter of 2024, we applied an adjustment to our methodology for forecasting the amount of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio, which reduced the forecasted collection rates for Consumer Loans assigned in 2022 through 2024.
The following table summarizes the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers: For the Years Ended December 31, For the Years Ended December 31, 2023 2022 % Change 2022 2021 % Change Consumer Loan unit volume 332,499 280,467 18.6 % 280,467 268,730 4.4 % Active Dealers (1) 14,174 11,901 19.1 % 11,901 11,410 4.3 % Average volume per active Dealer 23.5 23.6 -0.4 % 23.6 23.6 0.0 % Consumer Loan unit volume from Dealers active both periods 282,008 259,999 8.5 % 250,114 250,214 0.0 % Dealers active both periods 9,506 9,506 — 8,691 8,691 — Average volume per Dealer active both periods 29.7 27.4 8.5 % 28.8 28.8 0.0 % Consumer Loan unit volume from Dealers not active both periods 50,491 20,468 146.7 % 30,353 18,516 63.9 % Dealers not active both periods 4,668 2,395 94.9 % 3,210 2,719 18.1 % Average volume per Dealer not active both periods 10.8 8.5 27.1 % 9.5 6.8 39.7 % (1) Active Dealers are Dealers who have received funding for at least one Consumer Loan during the period. 34 The following table provides additional information on the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers: For the Years Ended December 31, For the Years Ended December 31, 2023 2022 % Change 2022 2021 % Change Consumer Loan unit volume from new active Dealers 46,741 28,223 65.6 % 28,223 18,267 54.5 % New active Dealers (1) 4,070 2,819 44.4 % 2,819 2,094 34.6 % Average volume per new active Dealer 11.5 10.0 15.0 % 10.0 8.7 14.9 % Attrition (2) -7.3 % -6.9 % -6.9 % -7.7 % (1) New active Dealers are Dealers who enrolled in our program and have received funding for their first Loan from us during the period.
The following table summarizes the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers: For the Years Ended December 31, For the Years Ended December 31, 2024 2023 % Change 2023 2022 % Change Consumer Loan unit volume 386,126 332,499 16.1 % 332,499 280,467 18.6 % Active Dealers (1) 15,463 14,174 9.1 % 14,174 11,901 19.1 % Average volume per active Dealer 25.0 23.5 6.4 % 23.5 23.6 -0.4 % Consumer Loan unit volume from Dealers active both periods 339,361 304,779 11.3 % 282,008 259,999 8.5 % Dealers active both periods 10,637 10,637 — 9,506 9,506 — Average volume per Dealer active both periods 31.9 28.7 11.3 % 29.7 27.4 8.5 % Consumer Loan unit volume from Dealers not active both periods 46,765 27,720 68.7 % 50,491 20,468 146.7 % Dealers not active both periods 4,826 3,537 36.4 % 4,668 2,395 94.9 % Average volume per Dealer not active both periods 9.7 7.8 24.4 % 10.8 8.5 27.1 % (1) Active Dealers are Dealers who have received funding for at least one Consumer Loan during the period. 35 The following table provides additional information on the changes in Consumer Loan unit volume and active Dealers: For the Years Ended December 31, For the Years Ended December 31, 2024 2023 % Change 2023 2022 % Change Consumer Loan unit volume from new active Dealers 43,985 46,741 -5.9 % 46,741 28,223 65.6 % New active Dealers (1) 4,330 4,070 6.4 % 4,070 2,819 44.4 % Average volume per new active Dealer 10.2 11.5 -11.3 % 11.5 10.0 15.0 % Attrition (2) -8.3 % -7.3 % -7.3 % -6.9 % (1) New active Dealers are Dealers who enrolled in our program and have received funding for their first Loan from us during the period.
For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on Term ABS 2021-1 up to the cap rate of 5.46%, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $0.8 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.
As of December 31, 2024, we had $100.0 million in floating rate debt outstanding under Term ABS 2021-1, without interest rate protection. For every 100-basis-point increase in interest rates on Term ABS 2021-1, annual after-tax earnings would decrease by approximately $0.8 million, assuming we maintain a level amount of floating rate debt.
For additional information, see Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.
For information regarding these financings and the covenants included in the related documents, see Note 9 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference.
For the year ended December 31, 2023, consolidated net income was $286.1 million, or $21.99 per diluted share, compared to $535.8 million, or $39.32 per diluted share, for the same period in 2022. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in provision for credit losses and interest expense.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, consolidated net income was $247.9 million, or $19.88 per diluted share, compared to $286.1 million, or $21.99 per diluted share, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in interest expense and provision for credit losses, partially offset by an increase in finance charges.
We recognize provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments for contractual net cash flows that are not expected to be realized at the time of assignment. We also recognize provision for credit losses on forecast changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows subsequent to assignment.
We also recognize provision for credit losses on forecast changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows subsequent to assignment.
Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2022, included: • $343.7 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $264.6 million, or $19.42 per diluted share; and • $137.7 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $106.0 million, or $7.78 per diluted share.
Our provision for credit losses for the year ended December 31, 2023, included: • $322.5 million provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments, which reduced consolidated net income by $248.3 million, or $19.08 per diluted share; and • $413.7 million provision for credit losses on forecast changes related to changes in the amount and timing of expected future net cash flows, which reduced consolidated net income by $318.5 million, or $24.48 per diluted share. 41 Key Factors.
For information regarding current actions to which we are a party, see Note 16 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. Key Factors. Negative variances in the ultimate disposition of claims and litigation outstanding from current estimates could result in additional expense in future periods.
For information regarding current actions to which we are a party, see Note 15 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. Key Factors.
The decrease in average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment was primarily due to a decrease in the average advance rate for 2023 Consumer Loans. Interest.
The decrease in average provision per new Consumer Loan assignment was primarily due to a decrease in the average advance rate for 2024 Consumer Loans and a lower percentage of Purchased Loans in the mix of Consumer Loan assignments received during 2024. Interest.
The following table summarizes the provision for credit losses for each of these components: (In millions) For the Years Ended December 31, Provision for Credit Losses 2023 2022 Change Forecast changes $ 413.7 $ 137.7 $ 276.0 New Consumer Loan assignments 322.5 343.7 (21.2) Total $ 736.2 $ 481.4 $ 254.8 The increase in provision for credit losses related to forecast changes was primarily due to a greater decline in Consumer Loan performance during 2023 compared to 2022.
The following table summarizes the provision for credit losses for each of these components: (In millions) For the Years Ended December 31, Provision for Credit Losses 2024 2023 Change Forecast changes $ 493.8 $ 413.7 $ 80.1 New Consumer Loan assignments 320.9 322.5 (1.6) Total $ 814.7 $ 736.2 $ 78.5 The increase in provision for credit losses related to forecast changes was due to a greater decline in Consumer Loan performance during 2024 compared to 2023 and slower net cash flow timing during 2024 compared to 2023.
Uncertain Tax Positions Nature of Estimates Required. We estimate the impact of an uncertain income tax position on the income tax return. These estimates impact income taxes receivable and accounts payable and accrued liabilities on our balance sheet and provision for income taxes on our income statement. Assumptions and Approaches Used.
These estimates impact income taxes receivable and accounts payable and accrued liabilities on our balance sheet and provision for income taxes on our income statement. Assumptions and Approaches Used. We follow a two-step approach for recognizing uncertain tax positions.
Overview We offer financing programs that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers, regardless of their credit history.
Overview We make vehicle ownership possible by providing innovative financing solutions that enable automobile dealers to sell vehicles to consumers, regardless of their credit history.
Economic profit measures how efficiently we utilize our total capital, both debt and equity, and is a function of the return on capital in excess of the cost of capital and the amount of capital invested in the business.
Economic profit measures how efficiently we utilize our total capital, both debt and equity, and is a function of the return on capital in excess of the cost of capital and the amount of capital invested in the business. 29 Consumer Loan Metrics At the time a Consumer Loan is submitted to us for assignment, we forecast future expected cash flows from the Consumer Loan.
The increase was primarily as a result of Consumer Loan performance, as the performance of 2022 Dealer Loans has been significantly lower than our initial estimates. Additionally, 2023 Dealer Loans had a higher initial spread, due to the advance rate decreasing by a greater margin than the initial forecast.
The higher spread for 2024 Consumer Loans relative to 2023 Consumer Loans as of December 31, 2024 was primarily a result of Consumer Loan performance, as the performance of 2023 Consumer Loans has been lower than our initial estimates by a greater margin than 2024 Consumer Loans.
The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to an increase in provision for credit losses, a decrease in finance charges, and an increase in operating expenses.
The decrease in consolidated net income was primarily due to increases in provision for credit losses and interest expense.
For additional information, see Note 2 and Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. 36 Year Ended December 31, 2023 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2022 (Dollars in millions, except per share data) For the Years Ended December 31, 2023 2022 $ Change % Change Revenue: Finance charges $ 1,755.4 $ 1,686.3 $ 69.1 4.1 % Premiums earned 79.6 62.7 16.9 27.0 % Other income 66.9 83.4 (16.5) -19.8 % Total revenue 1,901.9 1,832.4 69.5 3.8 % Costs and expenses: Salaries and wages 280.2 262.0 18.2 6.9 % General and administrative 87.2 88.7 (1.5) -1.7 % Sales and marketing 91.7 75.6 16.1 21.3 % Total operating expenses 459.1 426.3 32.8 7.7 % Provision for credit losses on forecast changes 413.7 137.7 276.0 200.4 % Provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments 322.5 343.7 (21.2) -6.2 % Total provision for credit losses 736.2 481.4 254.8 52.9 % Interest 266.5 166.6 99.9 60.0 % Provision for claims 70.7 46.4 24.3 52.4 % Loss on extinguishment of debt 1.8 — 1.8 — % Total costs and expenses 1,534.3 1,120.7 413.6 36.9 % Income before provision for income taxes 367.6 711.7 (344.1) -48.3 % Provision for income taxes 81.5 175.9 (94.4) -53.7 % Net income $ 286.1 $ 535.8 $ (249.7) -46.6 % Net income per share: Basic $ 22.09 $ 39.50 $ (17.41) -44.1 % Diluted $ 21.99 $ 39.32 $ (17.33) -44.1 % Weighted average shares outstanding: Basic 12,953,424 13,563,885 (610,461) -4.5 % Diluted 13,010,735 13,625,081 (614,346) -4.5 % Finance Charges.
For additional information, see Note 2 and Note 5 to the consolidated financial statements contained in Item 8 of this Form 10-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. 36 Year Ended December 31, 2024 Compared to Year Ended December 31, 2023 (Dollars in millions, except per share data) For the Years Ended December 31, 2024 2023 $ Change % Change Revenue: Finance charges $ 1,992.7 $ 1,755.4 $ 237.3 13.5 % Premiums earned 96.1 79.6 16.5 20.7 % Other income 73.6 66.9 6.7 10.0 % Total revenue 2,162.4 1,901.9 260.5 13.7 % Costs and expenses: Salaries and wages 309.2 280.2 29.0 10.3 % General and administrative 97.9 87.2 10.7 12.3 % Sales and marketing 94.4 91.7 2.7 2.9 % Total operating expenses 501.5 459.1 42.4 9.2 % Provision for credit losses on forecast changes 493.8 413.7 80.1 19.4 % Provision for credit losses on new Consumer Loan assignments 320.9 322.5 (1.6) -0.5 % Total provision for credit losses 814.7 736.2 78.5 10.7 % Interest 419.5 266.5 153.0 57.4 % Provision for claims 73.5 70.7 2.8 4.0 % Loss on extinguishment of debt — 1.8 (1.8) -100.0 % Loss on sale of building 23.7 — 23.7 — % Total costs and expenses 1,832.9 1,534.3 298.6 19.5 % Income before provision for income taxes 329.5 367.6 (38.1) -10.4 % Provision for income taxes 81.6 81.5 0.1 0.1 % Net income $ 247.9 $ 286.1 $ (38.2) -13.4 % Net income per share: Basic $ 20.12 $ 22.09 $ (1.97) -8.9 % Diluted $ 19.88 $ 21.99 $ (2.11) -9.6 % Weighted average shares outstanding: Basic 12,323,261 12,953,424 (630,163) -4.9 % Diluted 12,469,283 13,010,735 (541,452) -4.2 % Finance Charges.
On August 4, 2023, we extended the date on which our $75.0 million Warehouse Facility VI will cease to revolve from September 30, 2024 to September 30, 2026. On August 24, 2023, we completed a $400.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
On February 16, 2024, we extended the $100.0 million Term ABS 2021-1 financing and extended the date on which the financing will cease to revolve from December 16, 2024 to February 17, 2026. On February 27, 2024, we completed a $200.0 million Term ABS financing, which was used to repay outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.
The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million. 40 The COVID-19 pandemic created conditions that increased the level of uncertainty associated with our estimate of the amount and timing of future net cash flows from our Loan portfolio.
Changes in the amount and timing of forecasted net cash flows are recognized in the period of change as a provision for credit losses. The implementation of the adjustment to our forecasting methodology during the second quarter of 2023 reduced forecasted net cash flows by $44.5 million, or 0.5%, and increased provision for credit losses by $71.3 million.
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 8.6% (including the initial purchasers’ fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans. On December 19, 2023, we issued $600.0 million of 9.250% senior notes due 2028 (the “2028 senior notes”).
The financing has an expected average annualized cost of 5.2% (including upfront fees and other costs), and it will revolve for 24 months, after which it will amortize based upon the cash flows on the underlying Loans.
As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, the net Dealer Loans receivable balance was 67.7% and 64.7%, respectively, of the total net Loans receivable balance. 35 Results of Operations The following is a discussion of our 2023 and 2022 results of operations and income statement data on a consolidated basis, including year-to-year comparisons between 2023 and 2022.
Results of Operations The following is a discussion of our 2024 and 2023 results of operations and income statement data on a consolidated basis, including year-to-year comparisons between 2024 and 2023.