Biggest changeWe analyze interest rate risk using various models, including multi-scenario cash flow projection models that forecast cash flows of the liabilities and their supporting investments, including derivatives. These projections involve evaluating the potential gain or loss on most of our in-force business under various increasing and decreasing interest rate environments.
Biggest changeThese projections involve evaluating the potential gain or loss on most of our in-force business under various increasing and decreasing interest rate environments. State insurance department regulations require that we perform some of these analyses annually as part of our review of the sufficiency of our regulatory reserves.
We also employ product design strategies to mitigate the effect of changes in equity markets such as prioritizing products that provide a risk offset and diversification to our legacy variable products. Key management objectives include limiting losses, minimizing exposures to significant risks and providing additional capital capacity for future growth.
We also employ product design strategies to mitigate the effect of changes in equity markets such as prioritizing products that provide a risk offset and diversification to our variable annuity products. Key management objectives include limiting losses, minimizing exposures to significant risks and providing additional capital capacity for future growth.
As a result of that analysis, we have determined that the estimated fair values of certain assets and liabilities are significantly exposed to changes in interest rates, and to a lesser extent, to changes in equity market prices and foreign currency exchange rates. We have exposure to market risk through our insurance operations and general account investment activities.
As a result of that analysis, we have determined that the estimated fair values of certain assets and liabilities are significantly exposed to changes in interest rates, and to a lesser extent, to changes in equity market prices and foreign currency exchange rates. We have exposure to market risk through our insurance operations and investment activities.
As discussed above, we economically hedge substantially all of our foreign currency exposure such that sensitivity to changes in foreign currencies is minimal. 108 Table of Contents
As discussed above, we economically hedge substantially all of our foreign currency exposure such that sensitivity to changes in foreign currencies is minimal. 107 Table of Contents
In addition, we have exposure to equity markets through equity derivatives that we enter into to mitigate potential equity market exposure from our policyholder liabilities. Foreign Currency Exchange Rates Our fair value exposure to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates against the U.S. dollar results from our holdings in non-U.S. dollar denominated fixed maturity securities, mortgage loans and certain liabilities.
In addition, we have exposure to equity markets through equity derivatives that we enter into to mitigate potential equity market exposure from our policyholder liabilities. 105 Table of Contents Foreign Currency Exchange Rates Our fair value exposure to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates against the U.S. dollar results from our holdings in non-U.S. dollar denominated fixed maturity securities, mortgage loans and certain liabilities.
We also use interest rate derivatives to mitigate the exposure related to interest rate risks from our policyholder liabilities. 106 Table of Contents Equity Market Our fair value exposure to equity market risk primarily arises from policyholder liabilities with long-term guarantees on equity performance, including crediting rates on index-linked annuities accounted for as embedded derivatives and variable annuity guarantees.
We also use interest rate derivatives to mitigate the exposure related to interest rate risks from our policyholder liabilities. Equity Market Our fair value exposure to equity market risk primarily arises from policyholder liabilities with long-term guarantees on equity performance, including crediting rates on index-linked annuities accounted for as embedded derivatives and variable annuity guarantees.
(2) Excludes $36.4 billion of liabilities at carrying value pursuant to insurance contracts reported within future policy benefits and other policy-related balances on the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2023.
(2) Excludes $35.4 billion of liabilities at carrying value pursuant to insurance contracts reported within future policy benefits and other policy-related balances on the consolidated balance sheet at December 31, 2024.
In performing the analysis summarized below, we used market rates as of December 31, 2023.
In performing the analysis summarized below, we used market rates as of December 31, 2024.
Management believes that the changes in the economic value of those contracts under changing interest rates would offset a significant portion of the fair value changes of interest rate sensitive assets. (3) Embedded derivatives on index-linked annuities are recognized on the consolidated balance sheet in the same caption as the host contract.
Management believes that the changes in the economic value of those contracts under changing interest rates would offset a significant portion of the fair value changes of interest rate sensitive assets. (3) Embedded derivatives on index-linked annuities are recognized on the consolidated balance sheet in Policyholder account balances.
Risk Management We have an integrated process for managing risk exposures, which is coordinated among our Risk Management, Finance and Investment Departments. The process is designed to assess and manage exposures on a consolidated, company-wide basis.
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk Risk Management We have an integrated process for managing risk exposures, which is coordinated among our Risk Management, Finance and Investment Departments. The process is designed to assess and manage exposures on a consolidated, company-wide basis.
The sensitivity analysis is an estimate and should not be viewed as predictive of our future financial performance. Our actual losses in any particular period may vary from the amounts indicated in the table below. Limitations related to this sensitivity analysis include: • interest sensitive liabilities do not include $36.4 billion of insurance contract liabilities at December 31, 2023.
The sensitivity analysis is an estimate and should not be viewed as predictive of our future financial performance. Our actual losses in any particular period may vary from the amounts indicated in the table below. Limitations related to this sensitivity analysis include: • interest sensitive liabilities do not include a significant portion of our insurance contract liabilities.
Although we take measures to manage the economic risks of investing in a changing interest rate environment, we may not be able to mitigate completely 105 Table of Contents the interest rate or other mismatch risk of our fixed income investments relative to our interest rate sensitive liabilities.
Although we take measures to manage the economic risks of investing in a changing interest rate environment, we may not be able to mitigate completely the interest rate or other mismatch risk of our fixed income investments relative to our interest rate sensitive liabilities. The level of interest rates also affects our liabilities for benefits under our annuity contracts.
Accordingly, we use such models as tools and not as substitutes for the experience and judgment of our management. 107 Table of Contents The potential loss in the estimated fair value of our interest rate sensitive financial instruments due to a 100 basis point increase in the yield curve by type of asset and liability was as follows at: December 31, 2023 Notional Amount Estimated Fair Value (1) 100 Basis Point Increase in the Yield Curve (In millions) Financial assets with interest rate risk Fixed maturity securities $ 80,991 $ (5,247) Mortgage loans $ 20,609 (880) Policy loans $ 1,455 (97) Premiums, reinsurance and other receivables $ 7,724 (117) Reinsurance of market risk benefits $ 43 (30) Increase (decrease) in estimated fair value of assets (6,371) Financial liabilities with interest rate risk (2) Policyholder account balances $ 30,606 130 Long-term debt $ 2,769 222 Other liabilities $ 1,142 (7) Embedded derivatives on index-linked annuities (3) $ 8,186 (85) (Increase) decrease in estimated fair value of liabilities 260 Market risk benefits associated with variable annuities $ 9,701 (3,025) Derivative instruments with interest rate risk Interest rate contracts $ 92,499 $ (1,964) (1,730) Foreign currency contracts $ 5,221 $ 394 (26) Equity contracts $ 74,111 $ 169 13 Increase (decrease) in estimated fair value of derivative instruments (1,743) Net change $ (4,829) _______________ (1) Separate account assets and liabilities, which are interest rate sensitive, are not included herein as any interest rate risk is borne by the contract holder.
Accordingly, we use such models as tools and not as substitutes for the experience and judgment of our management. 106 Table of Contents The potential loss in the estimated fair value of our interest rate sensitive financial instruments due to a 100 basis point increase in the yield curve by type of asset and liability was as follows at: December 31, 2024 Notional Amount Estimated Fair Value (1) 100 Basis Point Increase in the Yield Curve (In millions) Financial assets with interest rate risk Fixed maturity securities $ 80,055 $ (4,641) Mortgage loans $ 21,373 (861) Policy loans $ 2,104 (99) Premiums, reinsurance and other receivables $ 9,277 (107) Reinsurance of market risk benefits $ 17 (26) Increase (decrease) in estimated fair value of assets (5,734) Financial liabilities with interest rate risk (2) Policyholder account balances $ 31,563 175 Long-term debt $ 2,787 208 Other liabilities $ 1,338 (6) Embedded derivatives on index-linked annuities (3) $ 11,540 1 (Increase) decrease in estimated fair value of liabilities 378 Market risk benefits associated with variable annuities $ 7,233 (2,188) Derivative instruments with interest rate risk Interest rate contracts $ 125,236 $ (2,448) (1,372) Foreign currency contracts $ 4,894 $ 539 (32) Equity contracts $ 146,514 $ 777 133 Increase (decrease) in estimated fair value of derivative instruments (1,271) Net change $ (4,439) _______________ (1) Separate account assets and liabilities, which are interest rate sensitive, are not included herein as any interest rate risk is borne by the contract holder.
The level of interest rates also affects our liabilities for benefits under our annuity contracts. As interest rates decline, we may need to increase our reserves for future benefits under our annuity contracts, which would adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
If interest rates continue to decline, we may need to increase our reserves for future benefits under our annuity contracts, which would adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. 104 Table of Contents We also employ product design and pricing strategies to mitigate the potential effects of interest rate movements.
We also use common industry metrics, such as duration and convexity, to measure the relative sensitivity of asset and liability values to changes in interest rates. In computing the duration of liabilities, we consider all policyholder guarantees and how indeterminate policy elements such as interest credits or dividends are set.
In computing the duration of liabilities, we consider all policyholder guarantees and how indeterminate policy elements such as interest credits or dividends are set. Each asset portfolio has a duration target based on the liability duration and the investment objectives of that portfolio.
We also employ product design and pricing strategies to mitigate the potential effects of interest rate movements. These strategies include the use of surrender charges, market value adjustment features or restrictions on withdrawals, and for certain products, the ability to reset crediting rates.
These strategies include the use of surrender charges, market value adjustment features or restrictions on withdrawals, and for certain products, the ability to reset crediting rates. We analyze interest rate risk using various models, including multi-scenario cash flow projection models that forecast cash flows of the liabilities and their supporting investments, including derivatives.
These models reflect specific product characteristics and include assumptions based on current and anticipated experience regarding lapse, mortality and interest crediting rates. In addition, these models include asset cash flow projections reflecting interest payments, sinking fund payments, principal payments, bond calls, prepayments and defaults.
We measure relative sensitivities of the value of our assets and liabilities to changes in key assumptions using internal models. These models reflect specific product characteristics and include assumptions based on current and anticipated experience regarding lapse, mortality and interest crediting rates.
Sensitivity Summary Sensitivity to a 100 basis point rise in interest rates was $4.8 billion at December 31, 2023. Sensitivity to a 10% decrease in equity prices was $89 million at December 31, 2023.
Sensitivity Summary Sensitivity to a 100 basis point rise in interest rates decreased by $390 million, or 8% to $4.4 billion at December 31, 2024 from $4.8 billion at December 31, 2023, primarily as a result of a decrease in the estimated fair value of our fixed maturity securities due to higher interest rates, in line with management expectation.