Biggest changeAs a result, the relationship between interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, as shown in the previous table, is only a general indicator of interest rate sensitivity and the effect of changing interest rates on net interest income is likely to be different from that predicted solely on the basis of the interest rate sensitivity analysis set forth in the previous table. The Corporation also models the sensitivity of net interest income for the 12-month period subsequent to any given month-end assuming a dynamic balance sheet accounting for, among other items: ● The Corporation’s current balance sheet and repricing characteristics; ● Forecasted balance sheet growth consistent with the business plan; ● Current interest rates and yield curves and management estimates of projected interest rates; ● Embedded options, interest rate floors, periodic caps and lifetime caps; ● Repricing characteristics for market rate sensitive instruments; ● Loan, investment, deposit and borrowing cash flows; ● Loan prepayment estimates for each type of loan; and ● Immediate, permanent and parallel movements in interest rates of plus 300, 200 and 100, minus 100, minus 200 and minus 300 basis points. The following table describes the results of the analysis at June 30, 2023 and 2022: At June 30, 2023 At June 30, 2022 Basis Point (bp) Change in Basis Point (bp) Change in Change in Rates Net Interest Income Change in Rates Net Interest Income +300 bp -10.56% +300 bp 3.32% +200 bp -5.26% +200 bp 2.14% +100 bp -1.95% +100 bp 1.05% -100 bp 1.25% -100 bp -0.09% -200 bp -0.59% -200 bp -3.28% -300 bp -3.33% -300 bp -7.71% At June 30, 2023, the Corporation was liability sensitive as its interest-bearing liabilities are expected to reprice more quickly than its interest-earning assets during the subsequent 12-month period.
Biggest changeResults are likely to be different from that predicted solely on the basis of the interest rate sensitivity analysis set forth in the previous table. The Corporation also models the sensitivity of net interest income for the 12-month period subsequent to any given month-end assuming a dynamic balance sheet accounting for, among other items: ● The Corporation’s current balance sheet and repricing characteristics; ● Forecasted balance sheet growth consistent with the business plan; ● Current interest rates and yield curves and management estimates of projected interest rates; ● Embedded options, interest rate floors, periodic caps and lifetime caps; ● Repricing characteristics for market rate sensitive instruments; ● Loan, investment security, deposit and borrowing cash flows; ● Loan prepayment estimates for each type of loan; and ● Immediate, permanent and parallel movements in interest rates of +300, +200 +100, and -100, -200 and -300 bp. The following table describes the results of the analysis at June 30, 2024 and 2023: At June 30, 2024 At June 30, 2023 Basis Point (bp) Change in Basis Point (bp) Change in Change in Rates Net Interest Income Change in Rates Net Interest Income +300 bp -8.12% +300 bp -10.56% +200 bp -3.45% +200 bp -5.26% +100 bp -0.51% +100 bp -1.95% -100 bp -0.67% -100 bp 1.25% -200 bp -1.15% -200 bp -0.59% -300 bp -1.86% -300 bp -3.33% At June 30, 2024, the Corporation was close to neutral with regard to the sensitivity of net interest income as projected net interest income declines slightly under rising or declining interest rates during the subsequent 12-month period. At June 30, 2023, the Corporation was liability sensitive as its interest-bearing liabilities are expected to reprice more quickly than its interest-earning assets during the subsequent 12-month period.
Furthermore, the gap analysis provides a static view of 65 Table of Contents interest rate risk exposure at a specific point in time without taking into account redirection of cash flows activity and deposit fluctuations. The extent to which the net interest margin will be impacted by changes in prevailing interest rates will depend on a number of factors, including how quickly interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities react to interest rate changes.
Furthermore, the gap analysis provides a static view of interest rate risk exposure at a specific point in time without taking into account redirection of cash flows activity and deposit fluctuations. The extent to which the net interest margin will be impacted by changes in prevailing interest rates will depend on a number of factors, including how quickly interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities react to interest rate changes.
Furthermore, the NPV presented in the foregoing tables is not intended to present the fair market value of the Corporation, nor does it represent amounts that would be available for distribution to shareholders in the event of the liquidation of the Corporation. The Corporation measures and evaluates the potential effects of interest rate movements through an interest rate sensitivity "gap" analysis.
Furthermore, the NPV presented in the foregoing tables is not intended to present the fair market value of the Corporation, nor does it represent amounts that would be available for distribution to shareholders in the event of the liquidation of the Corporation. 63 Table of Contents The Corporation measures and evaluates the potential effects of interest rate movements through an interest rate sensitivity "gap" analysis.
The calculation is intended to illustrate the change in NPV that would occur in the event of an immediate change in interest rates of -300, -200, -100, +100, +200 and +300 basis points (“bp”) with no effect given to steps that management might take to counter the effect of the interest rate movement.
The calculation is intended to illustrate the change in NPV that would occur in the event of an immediate change in interest rates of -300, - 62 Table of Contents 200, -100, +100, +200 and +300 basis points (“bp”) with no effect given to steps that management might take to counter the effect of the interest rate movement.
Therefore, 66 Table of Contents the model results that the Corporation discloses should be thought of as a risk management tool to compare the trends of the Corporation’s current disclosure to previous disclosures, over time, within the context of the actual performance of the treasury yield curve.
Therefore, the model results that the Corporation discloses should be thought of as a risk management tool to compare the trends of the Corporation’s current disclosure to previous disclosures, over time, within the context of the actual performance of the treasury yield curve.
Management views noninterest-bearing deposits to be the least sensitive to changes in market interest rates and these accounts are therefore characterized as long-term funding. Interest-bearing checking deposits are considered more sensitive, followed by increased sensitivity for savings and money market deposits.
Management views noninterest-bearing deposits to be the least sensitive to changes in market interest rates and these accounts are therefore characterized as long-term funding. Interest-bearing checking deposits are considered more sensitive, followed by increased sensitivity 64 Table of Contents for savings and money market deposits.
The sensitivity measure increased to 92 basis points at June 30, 2023 from 33 basis points at June 30, 2022. As with any method of measuring interest rate risk, certain shortcomings are inherent in the method of analysis presented in the foregoing tables.
The sensitivity measure increased to 95 basis points at June 30, 2024 from 92 basis points at June 30, 2023. As with any method of measuring interest rate risk, certain shortcomings are inherent in the method of analysis presented in the foregoing tables.
It is not uncommon for rates on certain assets or liabilities to lag behind changes in the market rates of interest. Additionally, prepayments of loans and early withdrawals of certificates of deposit could cause interest sensitivities to vary.
It is not uncommon for rates on certain assets or liabilities to lag behind changes in the market rates of interest. Additionally, prepayments of loans and early withdrawals of time deposits could cause interest sensitivities to vary.
However, past experience has shown that immediate, permanent and parallel movements in interest rates will not necessarily occur.
However, past experience has shown that immediate, permanent and parallel movements in interest rates will not 65 Table of Contents necessarily occur.
(3) Calculated as the change in the NPV ratio (NPV as a Percentage of Portfolio Value Assets) from the base case amount assuming the indicated change in interest rates (expressed in basis points). The following table is derived from the internal interest rate risk model and represents the change in the NPV at a -200 basis point rate shock at June 30, 2023 and -100 basis point rate shock at June 30, 2022: At June 30, 2023 At June 30, 2022 (-200 bp rate shock) (-100 bp rate shock) Pre-Shock NPV Ratio: NPV as a % of PV Assets 9.29 % 8.87 % Post-Shock NPV Ratio: NPV as a % of PV Assets 8.37 % 8.54 % Sensitivity Measure: Change in NPV Ratio -92 bp -33 bp The pre-shock NPV ratio increased 42 basis points to 9.29% (-200 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2023 from 8.87% (-100 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2022, while the post-shock NPV ratio decreased 17 basis points to 8.37% (-200 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2023 from 8.54% (-100 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2022.
(3) Calculated as the change in the NPV ratio (NPV as a Percentage of Portfolio Value Assets) from the base case amount assuming the indicated change in interest rates (expressed in basis points). The following table is derived from the internal interest rate risk model and represents the change in the NPV at a +200 bp rate shock at June 30, 2024 and -200 bp rate shock at June 30, 2023 which has been determined to be the most detrimental to the interest rate risk of the Corporation in a -200, -100, +100 and +200 bp rate shock scenario: At June 30, 2024 At June 30, 2023 (+200 bp rate shock) (-200 bp rate shock) Pre-Shock NPV Ratio: NPV as a % of PV Assets 10.12 % 9.29 % Post-Shock NPV Ratio: NPV as a % of PV Assets 9.17 % 8.37 % Sensitivity Measure: Change in NPV Ratio -95 bp -92 bp The pre-shock NPV ratio increased 83 basis points to 10.12% at June 30, 2024 from 9.29% at June 30, 2023, and the post-shock NPV ratio increased 80 basis points to 9.17% (+200 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2024 from 8.37% (-200 basis point rate shock) at June 30, 2023.
Therefore, in a rising interest rate environment, the model projects an increase in net interest income over the subsequent 12-month period. In a falling interest rate environment, the results project a decrease in net interest income over the subsequent 12-month period. Management believes that the assumptions used to complete the analysis described in the table above are reasonable.
In a falling interest rate environment, the results project an increase in net interest income over the subsequent 12-month period at the -100 basis point scenario and a decrease in net interest income over the subsequent 12-month period for the -200 and -300 basis point scenarios. Management believes that the assumptions used to complete the analysis described in the table above are reasonable.
The decrease of the NPV ratios was primarily attributable to increases in market interest rates and a $9.5 million cash dividend distribution from the Bank to the Corporation in September 2022, partly offset by the net income in fiscal 2023 and amortization of stock-based compensation.
The increase of the NPV ratios was primarily attributable to the net income in fiscal 2024 and amortization of stock-based compensation, partly offset by a $7.0 million cash dividend distribution from the Bank to the Corporation in September 2023, an $824,000 CECL adoption charged to equity, and increases in market interest rates.
For transaction accounts (checking, money market and savings deposits) that have no contractual 64 Table of Contents maturity, the table presents estimated principal cash flows and, as applicable, the Corporation's historical experience, management's judgment and statistical analysis concerning their most likely withdrawal behaviors. The following table represents the interest rate gap analysis of the Corporation's assets and liabilities as of June 30, 2023: Term to Contractual Repricing, Estimated Repricing, or Contractual Maturity (1) As of June 30, 2023 Greater than Greater than Greater than 12 months or 1 year to 3 3 years to 5 years or (Dollars In Thousands) less years 5 years non-sensitive Total Repricing Assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 59,121 $ — $ — $ 6,728 $ 65,849 Investment securities 8,693 — — 147,799 156,492 Loans held for investment 251,618 185,194 223,215 417,602 1,077,629 FHLB - San Francisco stock 9,505 — — — 9,505 Other assets 3,711 — — 19,762 23,473 Total assets 332,648 185,194 223,215 591,891 1,332,948 Repricing Liabilities and Equity: Checking deposits - noninterest-bearing — — — 103,006 103,006 Checking deposits - interest bearing 45,431 90,862 90,862 75,717 302,872 Savings deposits 58,041 116,082 116,081 — 290,204 Money market deposits 16,776 16,775 — — 33,551 Time deposits 166,501 46,984 5,647 1,806 220,938 Borrowings 150,009 80,000 5,000 — 235,009 Other liabilities 1,737 — — 15,944 17,681 Stockholders' equity — — — 129,687 129,687 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 438,495 350,703 217,590 326,160 1,332,948 Repricing gap positive (negative) $ (105,847) $ (165,509) $ 5,625 $ 265,731 $ — Cumulative repricing gap: Dollar amount $ (105,847) $ (271,356) $ (265,731) $ — $ — Percent of total assets (8) % (20) % (20) % — % — % (1) Cash and cash equivalents are presented as estimated repricing; investment securities and loans held for investment are presented as contractual maturities or contractual repricing (without consideration for prepayments); FHLB - San Francisco stock is presented as contractual repricing; transaction accounts (checking, savings and money market deposits) are presented as estimated repricing; while time deposits (without consideration for early withdrawals) and borrowings are presented as contractual maturities. The static gap analysis under “12 months or less” duration, “Greater than 1 year to 3 years” duration and “Greater than 3 years to 5 years” duration show negative positions in the "Cumulative repricing gap - dollar amount" category, indicating more liabilities are sensitive to repricing than assets in the short and intermediate terms.
For transaction accounts (checking, money market and savings deposits) that have no contractual maturity, the table presents estimated principal cash flows and, as applicable, the Corporation's historical experience, management's judgment and statistical analysis concerning their most likely withdrawal behaviors. The following table represents the interest rate gap analysis of the Corporation's assets and liabilities as of June 30, 2024: Term to Contractual Repricing, Estimated Repricing, or Contractual Maturity (1) As of June 30, 2024 Greater than Greater than Greater than 12 months or 1 year to 3 3 years to 5 years or (Dollars In Thousands) less years 5 years non-sensitive Total Repricing Assets: Cash and cash equivalents $ 45,058 $ — $ — $ 6,318 $ 51,376 Investment securities 7,176 — — 124,724 131,900 Loans held for investment 273,678 199,276 245,557 334,468 1,052,979 FHLB - San Francisco and other equity investments 10,108 — — — 10,108 Other assets 4,287 — — 21,550 25,837 Total assets 340,307 199,276 245,557 487,060 1,272,200 Repricing Liabilities and Equity: Checking deposits - noninterest-bearing — — — 95,627 95,627 Checking deposits - interest bearing 38,194 76,387 76,387 63,656 254,624 Savings deposits 47,776 95,551 95,551 — 238,878 Money market deposits 12,662 12,662 — — 25,324 Time deposits 245,713 23,383 3,545 1,254 273,895 Borrowings 145,500 78,000 15,000 — 238,500 Other liabilities 1,783 — — 13,628 15,411 Stockholders' equity — — — 129,941 129,941 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 491,628 285,983 190,483 304,106 1,272,200 Repricing gap positive (negative) $ (151,321) $ (86,707) $ 55,074 $ 182,954 $ — Cumulative repricing gap: Dollar amount $ (151,321) $ (238,028) $ (182,954) $ — $ — Percent of total assets (12) % (19) % (14) % — % — % (1) Cash and cash equivalents are presented as estimated repricing; investment securities and loans held for investment are presented as contractual maturities or contractual repricing (without consideration for prepayments); FHLB - San Francisco and other equity investments are presented as contractual repricing; transaction accounts (checking, savings and money market deposits) are presented as estimated repricing; and time deposits (without consideration for early withdrawals) and borrowings are presented as contractual maturities. The static gap analysis under “12 months or less” duration, “Greater than 1 year to 3 years” duration and “Greater than 3 years to 5 years” duration show negative positions in the "Cumulative repricing gap - dollar amount" category, indicating more liabilities are sensitive to repricing than assets in the short and intermediate terms.
As of June 30, 2023, the targeted federal funds rate range was 5.00% to 5.25%. 63 Table of Contents The following table sets forth as of June 30, 2023 the estimated changes in NPV based on the indicated interest rate environment (dollars in thousands): Net Portfolio NPV as Percentage Basis Points ("bp") Portfolio NPV Value of of Portfolio Value Sensitivity Change in Rates Value Change (1) Assets Assets (2) Measure (3) +300 bp $ 120,984 $ (2,323) $ 1,313,259 9.21 % -8 bp +200 bp $ 122,265 $ (1,041) $ 1,318,205 9.28 % -1 bp +100 bp $ 122,413 $ (894) $ 1,322,085 9.26 % -3 bp - $ 123,307 $ — $ 1,326,784 9.29 % — -100 bp $ 122,456 $ (850) $ 1,328,869 9.22 % -7 bp -200 bp $ 110,492 $ (12,814) $ 1,320,843 8.37 % -92 bp -300 bp $ 117,969 $ (5,337) $ 1,332,337 8.85 % -44 bp (1) Represents the decrease of the NPV at the indicated interest rate change in comparison to the NPV at June 30, 2023 (“base case”).
As of June 30, 2024, the targeted federal funds rate range was 5.25% to 5.50%. The following table sets forth as of June 30, 2024 the estimated changes in NPV based on the indicated interest rate environment (dollars in thousands): Net Portfolio NPV as Percentage Basis Points ("bp") Portfolio NPV Value of of Portfolio Value Sensitivity Change in Rates Value Change (1) Assets Assets (2) Measure (3) +300 bp $ 99,797 $ (29,127) $ 1,233,560 8.09 % (203) bp +200 bp $ 114,840 $ (14,084) $ 1,252,262 9.17 % (95) bp +100 bp $ 124,386 $ (4,538) $ 1,265,538 9.83 % (29) bp - $ 128,924 $ — $ 1,273,858 10.12 % — -100 bp $ 136,297 $ 7,373 $ 1,285,088 10.61 % 49 bp -200 bp $ 128,436 $ (488) $ 1,281,017 10.03 % (9) bp -300 bp $ 129,438 $ 514 $ 1,286,155 10.06 % (6) bp (1) Represents the (decrease) increase of the NPV at the indicated interest rate change in comparison to the NPV at June 30, 2024 (“base case”).