Biggest changeIn particular: • Many state and local governments have from time to time operated under deficits or projected deficits, particularly during and after a financial market disruption or economic downturn. The severity and duration of these deficits could have an adverse impact on the collectability and valuation of our municipal bond portfolio.
Biggest changeA significant portion of our fixed maturity investment portfolio is invested in obligations of states, municipalities and political subdivisions. This municipal bond portfolio could be subject to default or impairment. In particular: • Many state and local governments have from time to time operated under deficits or projected deficits, particularly during and after a financial market disruption or economic downturn.
These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period and could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and/or our financial position.
These additional liabilities or increases in estimates, or a range of either, could vary significantly from period to period and could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and/or our financial position.
If our controls, or the controls of our joint ventures or recently acquired businesses, are not effective (including with respect to the prevention or identification of misconduct by employees or others with whom we do business), it could lead to financial loss, unanticipated risk exposure (including underwriting, credit and investment risk), errors in financial reporting, litigation, regulatory proceedings or damage to our reputation.
If our controls, or the controls of our joint ventures or recently acquired businesses, are not effective (including with respect to the prevention or identification of misconduct by employees or others with whom we do business), it could lead to financial loss, unanticipated risk exposure (including underwriting, credit and investment risk), errors in financial reporting, litigation, regulatory proceedings and/or damage to our reputation.
These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as: changes in claims handling procedures, including automation; adverse changes in loss cost trends, including inflationary pressures, technology or other changes that may impact medical, auto and home repair costs (e.g., more costly technology in vehicles, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, higher costs of used vehicles and parts, and increased demand and decreased supply for raw materials, all of which results in increased severity of claims); economic conditions, including general and wage inflation; legal trends, including adverse changes in the tort environment that have continued to persist at elevated levels for a number of years (e.g., increased and more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims, increased litigation, expanded theories of liability, higher jury awards, lawsuit abuse and third-party litigation finance, among others); labor shortages, which can result in companies hiring less experienced workers; higher interest rates, which can result in higher post-judgment interest costs; and legislative changes, among others.
These variables can be affected by both internal and external events, such as: changes in claims handling procedures, including automation; adverse changes in loss cost trends, including inflationary pressures, technology or other changes that may impact medical, auto and home repair costs (e.g., more costly technology in vehicles, labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, higher costs of used vehicles and parts, and increased demand 44 and decreased supply for raw materials, all of which results in increased severity of claims); economic conditions, including general and wage inflation; legal trends, including adverse changes in the tort environment that have continued to persist at elevated levels for a number of years (e.g., increased and more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims, increased litigation, expanded theories of liability, higher jury awards, lawsuit abuse and third-party litigation finance, among others); labor shortages, which can result in companies hiring less experienced workers; higher interest rates, which can result in higher post-judgment interest costs; and legislative changes, among others.
COVID-19 presented, and any future pandemics (including new variants of COVID-19) could present, the following risks, among others: inflation; supply chain disruption; labor shortages; backlogs in the court system (which increase the time and costs to resolve claims); legal and regulatory demands for rate refunds; behavioral changes can result in the increased frequency and severity of claims, such as driving at faster speeds; medical conditions such as “long-COVID” and other claims in our workers compensation line; litigation seeking business interruption coverage; reduced earned premiums; higher claim and claim adjustment expenses in certain lines of business; adverse legislative or regulatory actions; operational disruptions; increased general and administrative expenses; financial market disruption; and an economic downturn.
COVID-19 presented, and any future pandemics (including new variants of COVID-19) could present, the following risks, among others: inflation; supply chain disruption; labor shortages; backlogs in the court system (which increase the time and costs to resolve claims); legal and regulatory demands for rate refunds; behavioral changes that can result in the increased frequency and severity of claims, such as driving at faster speeds; medical conditions such as “long-COVID” and other claims in our workers compensation line; litigation seeking business interruption coverage; reduced earned premiums; higher claims and claim adjustment expenses in certain lines of business; adverse legislative or regulatory actions; operational disruptions; increased general and administrative expenses; financial market disruption; and an economic downturn.
For a further discussion of risks that can impact us as a result of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, see “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” above and “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Outlook.” 53 Technology and Intellectual Property Risks Our business success and profitability depend, in part, on effective information technology systems and on continuing to develop and implement improvements in technology, particularly as our business processes become more digital.
For a further discussion of risks that can impact us as a result of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, see “During or following a period of financial market disruption or an economic downturn, our business could be materially and adversely affected” above and “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Outlook.” Technology and Intellectual Property Risks Our business success and profitability depend, in part, on effective information technology systems and on continuing to develop and implement improvements in technology, particularly as our business processes become more digital.
For example, our competitive position could be impacted if we are unable to deploy, in a cost effective and competitive manner, technology such as artificial intelligence and machine learning 50 that collects and analyzes a wide variety of data points (so-called “big data” analysis) to make underwriting or other decisions, or if our competitors collect and use data which we do not have the ability to access or use or deploy artificial intelligence to create efficiencies in ways that we do not.
For example, our competitive position could be impacted if we are unable to deploy, in a cost effective and competitive manner, technology such as artificial intelligence and machine learning that collects and analyzes a wide variety of data points (so-called “big data” analysis) to make underwriting or other decisions, or if our competitors collect and use data which we do not have the ability to access or use or deploy artificial intelligence to create efficiencies in ways that we do not.
See also “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Outlook.” The value of our fixed maturity and short-term investments is also subject to the risk that certain investments may default or become impaired due to a deterioration in the financial condition of one or more issuers of the securities held in our portfolio, or due to a deterioration in the financial condition of an insurer that guarantees an issuer’s payments of such investments.
See also “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Outlook.” The value of our fixed maturity and short-term investments is also 47 subject to the risk that certain investments may default or become impaired due to a deterioration in the financial condition of one or more issuers of the securities held in our portfolio, or due to a deterioration in the financial condition of an insurer that guarantees an issuer’s payments of such investments.
Like other global companies, our computer systems are regularly subject to and will continue to be the target of computer viruses, malware or other malicious codes (including ransomware), unauthorized access, cyber-attacks or other computer-related penetrations. The Company, like other property and casualty insurers, may be under greater threat from cybercriminals seeking sensitive personal or other insurance-related information.
Like other global companies, our computer systems are regularly subject to and will continue to be the target of computer viruses, malware or other malicious codes (including ransomware), unauthorized access, cyber-attacks or other computer- 54 related penetrations. The Company, like other property and casualty insurers, may be under greater threat from cybercriminals seeking sensitive personal or other insurance-related information.
Catastrophes can also be man-made, such as terrorist attacks and other intentionally destructive acts including those involving cyber events, nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, civil unrest, explosions and destruction of infrastructure. The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable, and it is possible that both the frequency and severity of natural and man-made catastrophic events could increase.
Catastrophes can also be man-made, such as terrorist attacks and other destructive acts including those involving cyber events, nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological events, civil unrest, explosions and destruction of infrastructure. The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable, and it is possible that both the frequency and severity of natural and man-made catastrophic events could increase.
Resulting legislative or regulatory actions or litigation could result in negative publicity and/or generate adverse rules or findings, such as curtailing the use of important underwriting criteria, or other data or methodologies, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. Future pandemics (including new variants of COVID-19), could materially affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
Resulting legislative or regulatory actions or litigation could result in negative publicity and/or generate adverse rules or findings, such as curtailing the use of important underwriting criteria, or other data or methodologies, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. 53 Future pandemics (including new variants of COVID-19), could materially affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
It is possible that the filing of other direct actions against insurers, including us, could be made in the future. We also continue to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of their alleged disposition of toxic substances.
It is possible that the filing of other direct actions against insurers, including us, could be made in the future. 45 We also continue to receive claims from policyholders who allege that they are liable for injury or damage arising out of their alleged disposition of toxic substances.
Although the reinsurer is liable to us to the extent of the reinsurance, we remain liable as the direct insurer on all risks reinsured. As a result, reinsurance arrangements do not eliminate our obligation to pay claims. Accordingly, we are subject 48 to credit risk with respect to our ability to recover amounts due from reinsurers.
Although the reinsurer is liable to us to the extent of the reinsurance, we remain liable as the direct insurer on all risks reinsured. As a result, reinsurance arrangements do not eliminate our obligation to pay claims. Accordingly, we are subject to credit risk with respect to our ability to recover amounts due from reinsurers.
Similarly, comparative rating technology has impacted competition in personal lines and is now being used to access comparative rates for small commercial business as well, and that trend is likely to continue and may accelerate. In recent years, there have been new entrants into the small commercial business, and this trend may continue.
Similarly, comparative rating technology has impacted competition in personal lines and is now being used to access comparative rates for small commercial business as well, and that 50 trend is likely to continue and may accelerate. In recent years, there have been new entrants into the small commercial business, and this trend may continue.
The Company has been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to asbestos and environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions have interpreted the insurance coverage to be 45 broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. These decisions continue to be inconsistent and vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
The Company has been, and continues to be, involved in litigation involving insurance coverage issues pertaining to asbestos and environmental claims. The Company believes that some court decisions have interpreted the insurance coverage to be broader than the original intent of the insurers and policyholders. These decisions continue to be inconsistent and vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.
Our business activities outside the United States may also subject us to currency risk and, in some markets, it may be difficult to 52 effectively hedge that risk, or we may choose not to hedge that risk. In addition, in some markets, we invest as part of a joint venture with a local counterparty.
Our business activities outside the United States may also subject us to currency risk and, in some markets, it may be difficult to effectively hedge that risk, or we may choose not to hedge that risk. In addition, in some markets, we invest as part of a joint venture with a local counterparty.
In addition, increases in the value and geographic concentration of insured property, the number of policyholders exposed to certain events and the effects of inflation could increase the severity of claims resulting 43 from a catastrophe.
In addition, increases in the value and geographic concentration of insured property, the number of policyholders exposed to certain events and the effects of inflation could increase the severity of claims resulting from a catastrophe.
Recent changes in the inflationary environment have impacted medical labor and materials costs, the potential persistency of which could result in future loss costs which are higher than our current expectations.
Changes in the inflationary environment in recent years have impacted medical labor and materials costs, the potential persistency of which could result in future loss costs which are higher than our current expectations.
If we do not effectively develop, implement and monitor our vendor relationships, if third party providers do not perform as anticipated or experience financial difficulties, if we experience technological or other problems with a transition, or if vendor relationships relevant to our business process functions are terminated, we may not realize expected productivity improvements 54 or cost efficiencies and may experience operational difficulties, increased costs and a loss of business .
If we do not effectively develop, implement and monitor our vendor relationships, if third party providers do not perform as anticipated or experience financial difficulties, if we experience technological or other problems with a transition to a new vendor, or if vendor relationships relevant to our business process functions are terminated, we may not realize expected productivity improvements or cost efficiencies and may experience operational difficulties, increased costs and a loss of business .
For a discussion of loss reserves by product line, including examples of common factors that can affect reserves, see “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Estimates—Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves.” Our business could be harmed because of our potential exposure to asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation.
For a discussion of loss reserves by product line, including examples of common factors that can affect reserves, see “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Estimates—Claims and Claim Adjustment Expense Reserves.” Our business could be harmed because of our continued exposure to asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation.
We face potential exposure to mass tort claims, including claims related to exposure to potentially harmful products or substances, such as perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), talc, opioids and lead.
We face exposure to mass tort claims, including claims related to exposure to potentially harmful products or substances, such as perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), talc, opioids and lead.
For certain businesses, we give third parties binding authority to write business on our behalf, and in the case of Fidelis, we assume a percentage of its business under a reinsurance agreement, which exposes us to additional risks, including with respect to certain products, risks and geographies we do not normally cover.
For certain businesses, we give third parties binding authority to write direct and indirect business on our behalf, and in the case of Fidelis, we assume a percentage of its business under a reinsurance agreement, which exposes us to additional risks, including with respect to certain products, risks and geographies we do not normally cover.
In addition, system development projects may not deliver the benefits or perform as expected, or may be replaced or become obsolete more quickly than expected, which could result in operational difficulties, additional costs or accelerated recognition of expenses. Attracting and retaining technology personnel has also become significantly more challenging in recent periods.
In addition, system development projects may not deliver the benefits or perform as expected, or may be replaced or become obsolete more quickly than expected, which could result in operational difficulties, additional costs or accelerated recognition of expenses. Attracting and retaining technology personnel has also become significantly more challenging in recent years.
We continue to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the continued focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation.
We continue to receive a significant number of asbestos claims. Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the continued focus by plaintiffs on defendants, such as manufacturers of talcum powder, who were not traditionally sued and/or primary targets of asbestos litigation.
We also invest a portion of our assets in equity securities, private equity limited partnerships, hedge funds and real estate partnerships, as well as strategic investments in private and/or public companies. From time to time, we may also invest in other types of non-fixed maturity investments, including investments with exposure to commodity price risk.
We also invest a portion of our assets in equity securities, private equity limited partnerships, hedge funds and, as noted above, real estate partnerships, as well as strategic investments in private and/or public companies. From time to time, we may also invest in other types of non-fixed maturity investments, including investments with exposure to commodity price risk.
Traditional insurance industry participants, technology companies, “InsurTech” start-up companies, some of which are supported by traditional insurance industry participants, and others are focused on using technology and innovation to simplify and improve the customer experience, increase efficiencies, redesign products, alter business or distribution models and effect other potentially disruptive changes in the insurance industry.
Traditional insurance industry participants, technology companies, “InsurTech” companies, some of which are supported by traditional insurance industry participants, and others are focused on using technology and innovation to simplify and improve the customer experience, increase efficiencies, redesign products, alter business or distribution models and effect other potentially disruptive changes in the insurance industry.
Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future.
Climate studies by government agencies, academic institutions, catastrophe modeling organizations and other groups indicate that an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes, hail and severe convective storms, heavy precipitation events and associated river, urban and flash flooding, sea level rise, droughts, heat waves and wildfires has occurred, and can be expected into the future.
In addition, we conduct business in Brazil and Colombia through joint ventures, and throughout other parts of the world, including as a corporate member of Lloyd’s and through our quota share agreement with Fidelis. We may also explore opportunities in other countries.
In addition, we conduct business in Brazil through a joint venture, and throughout other parts of the world, including as a corporate member of Lloyd’s and through our quota share agreement with Fidelis. We may also explore opportunities in other countries.
Our estimated deductible under the program is $3.48 billion for 2024. For a further description of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, see note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. Because of the risks set forth above, catastrophes could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
Our estimated deductible under the program is $3.85 billion for 2025. For a further description of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, see note 6 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. Because of the risks set forth above, catastrophes could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
Examples of such claims and coverage issues include, but are not limited to: • judicial expansion of policy coverage and the impact of new or expanded theories of liability; • plaintiffs targeting insurers in purported class action litigation relating to claims handling and other practices; • claims relating to construction defects, which often present complex coverage and damage valuation questions; • claims related to data and network security breaches, information system failures or cyber events, including cases where coverage was not intended to be provided; • the assertion of “public nuisance” or similar theories of liability, pursuant to which plaintiffs, including governmental entities, seek to recover monies spent to respond to harm caused to members of the public, abate hazards to public health and safety and/or recover expenditures purportedly attributable to a “public nuisance,” such as litigation against manufacturers or distributors of lead paint, opioids, perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other allegedly harmful products, and entities that caused or contributed to harm to the environment; • claims related to liability, business interruption or workers’ compensation arising out of infectious disease or pandemic; • claims related to vaccine mandates; • claims relating to abuse by an employee or a volunteer of an insured; • claims that link health issues to particular causes (for example, cumulative traumatic head injury from sports or other causes), resulting in liability or workers’ compensation claims; • claims alleging that one or more of our underwriting criteria have a disparate impact on persons belonging to a protected class in violation of the law, including the Fair Housing Act; 46 • claims arising out of modern techniques and practices used in connection with the extraction of natural resources, such as hydraulic fracturing or wastewater injection; • claims arising out of the use of personal property in commercial transactions, such as ride or home sharing; • claims against fiduciaries of retirement plans, including allegations regarding excessive fees; • claims under laws protecting biometric data; • claims relating to unanticipated consequences of current or new technologies or business models or processes, including as a result of related behavioral changes; • claims relating to changing climate conditions, including claims alleging that our policyholders cause or contribute to changing climate conditions; and • bankruptcies of policyholders, which can lead to inflated numbers and values of claims.
Examples of such claims and coverage issues include, but are not limited to: • judicial expansion of policy coverage and the impact of new or expanded theories of liability; • plaintiffs targeting insurers in purported class action litigation relating to claims handling and other practices; • claims relating to construction defects, which often present complex coverage and damage valuation questions; • claims related to data and network security breaches, information system failures or cyber events, including cases where coverage was not intended to be provided; • the assertion of “public nuisance” or similar theories of liability, pursuant to which plaintiffs, including governmental entities, seek to recover monies spent to respond to harm caused to members of the public, abate hazards to public health and safety and/or recover expenditures purportedly attributable to a “public nuisance,” such as litigation against manufacturers or distributors of lead paint, opioids, perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and other allegedly harmful products, and entities that caused or contributed to harm to the environment; 46 • claims related to liability, business interruption or workers’ compensation arising out of infectious disease or pandemic; • claims related to vaccine mandates; • claims relating to abuse by an employee or a volunteer of an insured; • claims that link health issues to particular causes (for example, cumulative traumatic head injury from sports or other causes), resulting in liability or workers’ compensation claims; • claims arising out of modern techniques and practices used in connection with the extraction of natural resources, such as hydraulic fracturing or wastewater injection; • claims arising out of the use of personal property in commercial transactions, such as ride or home sharing; • claims against fiduciaries of retirement plans, including allegations regarding excessive fees; • claims under laws protecting biometric and other personal data; • claims relating to consequences of current or new technologies, including generative AI or addictive software, or business models or processes, including as a result of related behavioral changes; • claims relating to changing climate conditions, including claims alleging that our policyholders cause or contribute to changing climate conditions; and • bankruptcies of policyholders or other insurers, which can lead to inflated numbers and values of claims.
We have in the past, and may in the future, depending on changes in circumstances, such as economic and market conditions and relative asset valuations, make changes to the mix of investments in our investment portfolio as part of our ongoing efforts to seek appropriate risk-adjusted returns. These changes may impact the duration, volatility and risk of our investment portfolio.
We have in the past, and may in the future, depending on changes in circumstances, such as economic and market conditions and relative asset valuations, make changes to the mix of investments in our investment portfolio as part of our ongoing efforts to seek appropriate risk-adjusted returns.
Further, we may not have sufficient resources to respond to claims arising from a high frequency of high-severity natural catastrophes and/or of man-made catastrophic events involving conventional means or claims arising out of one or more man-made catastrophic events involving “unconventional” means, such as nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events.
Further, we may not have sufficient resources to respond to claims arising from a high frequency of high-severity natural catastrophes and/or of man-made catastrophic events involving conventional means or claims arising out of one or more man-made catastrophic events involving cyber, nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological means.
Insurance regulators may also increase the statutory capital and surplus requirements for our insurance subsidiaries or, as has happened recently in certain states, reject or delay rate increases or other changes to terms and conditions due to the economic environment or other factors and/or expand FAIR plans or similar residual market mechanisms.
Insurance regulators may also increase the statutory capital and surplus requirements for our insurance subsidiaries or, as has happened recently in certain states, reject or delay rate increases or other changes to terms and conditions due to the economic environment or other factors and/or expand FAIR plans or similar residual market mechanisms, including with respect to commercial lines.
Investment returns are an important part of our overall profitability. Fixed maturity and short-term investments comprised approximately 93% of the carrying value of our investment portfolio as of December 31, 2023. Changes in interest rates affect the carrying value of our fixed maturity investments and returns on our fixed maturity and short-term investments.
Investment returns are an important part of our overall profitability. Fixed maturity and short-term investments comprised approximately 94% of the carrying value of our investment portfolio as of December 31, 2024. Changes in interest rates affect the carrying value of our fixed maturity investments and returns on our fixed maturity and short-term investments.
For example, changes to state law regarding workers’ compensation insurance could impact the demand for our products, and the legalization of cannabis in certain states has, 55 according to some studies, resulted in more automobile accidents.
For example, changes to state law regarding workers’ compensation insurance or to requirements for other insurance products could impact the demand for our products, and the legalization of cannabis in certain states has, according to some studies, resulted in more automobile accidents.
Further, there has been a trend of increased consolidation by agents and brokers, which could impact our relationships with, and fees paid to, some agents and brokers, and/or otherwise negatively impact the pricing or distribution of our products.
Further, there has been a trend of increased consolidation by agents and brokers, and increased financing of agents and brokers by private equity firms, which could impact our relationships with, and fees paid to, some agents and brokers, and/or otherwise negatively impact the pricing or distribution of our products.
Disruptions to electrical power supplies have also increased losses arising from natural events, a dynamic which may become more frequent as dependency on electricity increases and/or if the reliability of the electric grid decreases.
Disruptions to electrical power supplies have also increased losses arising from natural events, a dynamic which may become more frequent as dependency on electricity increases and/or if the reliability of the electric grid decreases. Disruptions to electrical power supplies could result from non-natural events as well, including cyber events.
For example, in recent periods, the effects of inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge, have increased catastrophe losses, and this could continue in the future.
For example, in recent years, the effects of inflation, including as a result of post-event demand surge, have increased catastrophe losses, and this could occur again in the future.
Our efforts or the efforts of agents and brokers with respect to new products or markets, alternate distribution channels, changes to commission terms as well as changes in the way agents and brokers utilize data and technology, including in ways that may be in direct competition with us, could adversely impact our business relationship with independent agents and brokers who currently market our products, resulting in a lower volume and/or profitability of business generated from these sources. 51 In certain markets, brokers increasingly have been packaging portfolios of risks together and offering them to fewer carriers.
Our efforts or the efforts of agents and brokers with respect to new products or markets, alternate distribution channels, changes to commission terms as well as changes in the way agents and brokers utilize data and technology, including in ways that may be in direct competition with us, could adversely impact our business relationship with independent agents and brokers who currently market our products, resulting in a lower volume and/or profitability of business generated from these sources.
Loss reserve estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and lags in reporting of events to insurers, among other factors.
Loss reserve estimation difficulties also differ significantly by product line due to differences in claim complexity, the volume of claims, the potential severity of individual claims, the determination of occurrence date for a claim and lags in reporting of events to insurers, among other factors. Inflation in recent years significantly increased our loss costs in our personal and commercial businesses.
An important part of our business is written through less than a dozen such intermediaries, including the agency affiliate of GEICO, with whom we have had a distribution arrangement for homeowners’ business since 1995.
We market our insurance products primarily through independent agents and brokers. An important part of our business is written through less than a dozen such intermediaries, including the agency affiliate of GEICO, with whom we have had a distribution arrangement for homeowners’ business since 1995.
A portion of our premiums from outside of the United States is generated in Canada, a substantial portion of which consists of automobile premiums from the province of Ontario, which is a highly regulated market that can result in rate inadequacy.
A portion of our premiums from outside of the United States is generated in Canada, a substantial portion of which consists of automobile premiums from the provinces of Ontario and Alberta, which are highly regulated markets that can result in rate inadequacy.
Because of the risks set forth above, the value of our investment portfolio could decrease, we could experience reduced net investment income and we could experience realized and/or unrealized investment losses, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
These changes may impact the duration, diversification, volatility, and risk of our investment portfolio. 48 Because of the risks set forth above, the value of our investment portfolio could decrease, we could experience reduced net investment income and we could experience realized and/or unrealized investment losses, which could materially and adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and/or liquidity.
Our exposure to the above credit risks could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. A downgrade in our claims-paying and financial strength ratings could adversely impact our business volumes, adversely impact our ability to access the capital markets and increase our borrowing costs. Claims-paying and financial strength ratings are important to an insurer’s competitive position.
See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements. Our exposure to the above credit risks could materially and adversely affect our results of operations. A downgrade in our claims-paying and financial strength ratings could adversely impact our business volumes, adversely impact our ability to access the capital markets and increase our borrowing costs.
For example, over the past few years, a number of states have enacted legislation allowing victims of sexual molestation to file or proceed with claims that otherwise would have been time-barred and additional states are considering similar legislative changes.
For example, over the past decade, a number of states have enacted legislation allowing victims of sexual molestation to file or proceed with claims that otherwise would have been time-barred, which have resulted in, and are expected to continue to result in, significant claims payments by the Company, and additional states are considering similar legislative changes.
A downgrade in one or more of our ratings could negatively impact our business volumes or make it more difficult or costly for us to access the capital markets or borrow money.
Claims-paying and financial strength ratings are important to an insurer’s competitive position. A downgrade in one or more of our ratings could negatively impact our business volumes or make it more difficult or costly for us to access the capital markets or borrow money.
If we fail to appropriately price the risks we insure or fail to change our pricing models to appropriately reflect our experience, or if our claims experience is more frequent or severe than our underlying risk assumptions, for example due to inflation, changing climate conditions, legislative or regulatory changes, changes in behavior such as distracted or faster driving or a more aggressive tort environment, our profit margins may be negatively affected.
In addition, as the number of third-party models increases, it becomes more difficult to validate, manage and integrate such models as they evolve over time, and the risk associated with assimilating the output from such models into our decisions increases. 52 If we fail to appropriately price the risks we insure or fail to change our pricing models to appropriately reflect our experience, or if our claims experience is more frequent or severe than our underlying risk assumptions, for example due to inflation, changing climate conditions, legislative or regulatory changes, changes in behavior such as distracted or faster driving or a more aggressive tort environment, our profit margins may be negatively affected.
Moreover, certain policyholders purchase retrospectively rated policies (i.e., where premiums are adjusted after the policy period based on the actual loss experience of the policyholder during the policy period). Retrospectively rated policies expose us to additional credit risk to the extent that the adjusted premium is greater than the original premium.
Moreover, certain policyholders purchase retrospectively rated policies (i.e., where premiums are adjusted after the policy period based on the actual loss experience of the policyholder during the policy period).
In these and other situations, agents and brokers have an increased influence over policy language and compensation structure which, if we participate on that basis, could adversely impact our ability to profitably manage underwriting risk.
In certain markets, brokers increasingly have been packaging portfolios of risks together and offering them to fewer carriers or segmenting individual risks among many carriers. In these and other situations, agents and brokers have an increased influence over policy language and compensation structure which, if we participate on that basis, could adversely impact our ability to profitably manage underwriting risk.
See “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Catastrophe Modeling” and “—Changing Climate Conditions.” In addition, for newer and rapidly evolving products, such as cyber insurance, the lack of historical loss experience increases the level of uncertainty related to the product, and as a result, the inherent potential for unexpected material economic loss.
See “Item 7—Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Catastrophe Modeling” and “—Changing Climate Conditions.” In addition, for newer and rapidly evolving products, such as cyber insurance, limited historical loss experience and the potential for a widespread cyber event decrease the efficacy of modeling tools and increase the level of uncertainty related to the product, and as a result, the inherent potential for unexpected material economic loss. 43 The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of the total amount of insured exposure affected by the event, the severity of the event and the coverage provided.
The risk of cyber-attacks could be exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, including hostile actions taken by nation-states and terrorist organizations. In addition, new technology, such as artificial intelligence, could create unforeseen exposures or coverage issues under the policies we write and aggravate claims fraud and cybercrime.
In addition, new technology, such as artificial intelligence, could create unforeseen exposures or coverage issues under the policies we write and aggravate claims fraud and cybercrime.
In accordance with industry practice, when policyholders purchase insurance policies from us through independent agents and brokers, the premiums relating to those policies are often paid to the agents and brokers for payment to us. In most jurisdictions, the premiums will be deemed to have been paid to us whether or not they are actually received by us.
For example, we may not be able to obtain collateral and any collateral obtained may subsequently have little or no value. In accordance with industry practice, when policyholders purchase insurance policies from us through independent agents and brokers, the premiums relating to those policies are often paid to the agents and brokers for payment to us.
Our outsourcing of certain technology and business process functions to third parties may expose us to increased risk related to data and cyber security, service disruptions or the effectiveness of our control system. These risks could increase as additional functions move to the cloud and as dependencies and interconnections with the third parties with whom we do business increase.
Our outsourcing of certain technology and business process functions to third parties exposes us to increased risk related to data and cyber security, service disruptions and the effectiveness of our control system.
Consequently, we assume a degree of credit risk associated with amounts due from independent agents and brokers. 49 We are also exposed to credit risk related to certain guarantee or indemnification arrangements that we have with third parties. See note 17 of the notes to the consolidated financial statements.
In most jurisdictions, the premiums will be deemed to have been paid to us whether or not they are actually received by us. Consequently, we assume a degree of credit risk associated with amounts due from independent agents and brokers. We are also exposed to credit risk related to certain guarantee or indemnification arrangements that we have with third parties.
Regulatory and Compliance Risks Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including changes in tax regulation, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth.
If we cannot successfully redesign an infringing product, service or technology (or procure a substitute version), this could have a material adverse effect on our business and ability to compete. 55 Regulatory and Compliance Risks Our businesses are heavily regulated by the states and countries in which we conduct business, including licensing, market conduct and financial supervision, and changes in regulation, including changes in tax regulation, may reduce our profitability and limit our growth.
This dynamic has also impacted our agents, brokers, regulators, vendors and other business partners. If we and our business partners are not able to successfully attract, train, retain and motivate our respective employees, our business, financial results and reputation could be materially and adversely affected.
If we and our business partners are not able to successfully attract, train, retain and motivate our respective employees, our business, financial results and reputation could be materially and adversely affected. 51 Disruptions to our relationships with our independent agents and brokers or our inability to manage effectively a changing distribution landscape could adversely affect us .
During an economic downturn, fixed maturity and short-term investments could be subject to a higher risk of default, and our non-fixed income investments could be negatively impacted as well. 47 A significant portion of our fixed maturity investment portfolio is invested in obligations of states, municipalities and political subdivisions. This municipal bond portfolio could be subject to default or impairment.
Such defaults and impairments could reduce our net investment income and result in realized investment losses. During an economic downturn, fixed maturity and short-term investments could be subject to a higher risk of default, and our non-fixed income investments could be negatively impacted as well.
This competition has increased in recent periods and, with the increase in remote work, is taking place on a broader geographic scale. In addition, the competition for talent and the difficulty in attracting and retaining employees has also increased due to the retirement of members of the “baby boomer” generation.
This competition has continued in recent periods and, with the ability for employees to work remotely, is taking place on a broad geographic scale. In addition, the competition for talent and the difficulty in attracting and retaining employees has also increased due to retirements. This dynamic has also impacted our agents, brokers, regulators, vendors and other business partners.
If any of our software vendors or licensors are faced with infringement claims, we may lose our ability to use such software until the dispute is resolved. If we cannot successfully redesign an infringing product, service or technology (or procure a substitute version), this could have a material adverse effect on our business and ability to compete.
If any of our software vendors or licensors are faced with infringement claims, we may lose our ability to use such software until the dispute is resolved.
Residual markets have resulted in, and may in the future result in, significant losses or assessments to insurers, including us. In addition, legislative, regulatory and legal actions have sought to expand insurance coverage for catastrophe claims beyond the original intent of the policies, prevent the application of deductibles or limit other rights of insurers.
In addition, legislative, regulatory and legal actions have sought to expand insurance coverage for catastrophe claims beyond the original intent of the policies, prevent the application of deductibles or limit other rights of insurers. We may not be able to adjust terms or adequately raise prices to offset the costs of catastrophes. See “Item 1—Business—U.S.
See “Competition” sections of the discussion on business segments in “Item 1—Business.” Technological change can impact us in other ways as well. For example, rapid changes in the sophistication and use of certain types of cyber-attacks, such as ransomware and social engineering attacks, on our insureds have increased the frequency and severity of losses under our policies.
See “Competition” sections of the discussion on business segments in “Item 1—Business.” Technological change can impact us in other ways as well.
The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for loss reserves could be material and is difficult to estimate. For example, the ongoing backlog of cases in the courts has resulted in claims being unresolved for longer periods of time, which the Company believes has contributed, and will continue to 44 contribute, to increased loss costs.
The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for loss reserves could be material and is difficult to estimate.
Inflation in recent periods has significantly increased our loss costs in our personal and commercial businesses. Inflation higher than at the levels that the Company anticipates could continue to negatively impact our loss costs in future periods.
Inflation higher than at the levels that the Company anticipates could negatively impact our loss costs in future periods. It is possible that, among other things, potential actions taken by the federal government, such as tax reform or changes in international trade regulation, including tariffs, could lead to higher than anticipated inflation.
Our efforts to mitigate the credit risk that we have to our insureds may not be successful. For example, we may not be able to obtain collateral and any collateral obtained may subsequently have little or no value.
Retrospectively rated policies expose us to additional credit risk to the extent that the adjusted premium is greater than the original premium. 49 Our efforts to mitigate the credit risk that we have to our insureds may not be successful.